Global Markets Update Sound as a pound? Sterling has had a rollercoaster ride over the past twelve months. This time last year it was at a multidecade low on a real trade-weighted basis. But the pound’s fortunes have improved since then and... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how much of a boon to gilts has QE really been? 17th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010 The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the Treasury bears have got it wrong Received wisdom has it that 2010 will be a bad year for US Treasuries. We disagree and expect the 10- year yield to drop back to around 2.5%. 15th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is “printing money” so bad for the dollar? It is often assumed that the Fed’s monetary expansion has been unambiguously bad news for the dollar and could eventually lead to a collapse in the US currency. The reality is more complicated. We... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tobin’s equity Q is a warning for US equities Today’s Flow of Funds report published by the Federal Reserve reveals that the market value of the equity issued by US non-financial companies at the end of the third quarter was 0.91 times the net... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are gold prices now in a bubble? We do not believe that gold prices have risen beyond levels that could ever be justified by fundamentals. However, the absence of a bubble today will not prevent prices from falling back sharply next... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US equity market rally is likely to run out of steam The rally in the US equity market is nine months old and still going strong. This is not surprising. Equity prices typically start to rise six months or so before the economy emerges from recession... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold is expensive insurance against bubbles The latest surge in the price of gold could be justified by the desire for insurance against the risks of inflationary bubbles developing in other assets, as well as a collapse in the US dollar. But... 23rd November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the sun ever rise on Japan’s stock market? 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Capital controls unlikely, but rupiah to strengthen anyway 19th November 2009 · 1 min read