Global Markets Update What will the weaker dollar do for US corporate profits? The dollar’s slide is a welcome boost for US companies. A weaker currency not only allows exporters to gain market share and boost their margins, but also benefits those firms selling goods at home... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity super-cycle, or bubble? The recent strength in the prices of industrial metals and oil has revived talk of a “super-cycle” for these commodities where strong demand from emerging economies drives a multi-year bull market. We... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Getting to grips with TIPS The yield on 5-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has tumbled to a record low of minus 0.5%. It could fall even further if the yield on 5-year conventional Treasuries continues to... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bubble trouble? The prospect of additional quantitative easing (QE) by a number of major central banks in the developed world has coincided with a renewed surge in the prices of risky assets. We are sceptical that... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how significant is yen intervention? This month’s intervention by Japan to weaken the yen has contributed to fears of a “global currency war” or, viewed more positively, to hopes that large-scale unsterilised intervention by the major... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A change of view on gold We now expect gold prices to stay high for several more years. Fears of runaway inflation or a dollar collapse, which underpin some of the most bullish forecasts for gold, remain exaggerated... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does pay-out policy imply for the US equity market? According to the latest quarterly Flow of Funds Accounts published by the Federal Reserve on Friday, US non-farm non-financial companies (firms hereafter) returned more money to their shareholders in... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The euro’s troubles are far from over The euro’s slide this week has been prompted by renewed concerns about the health of the eurozone’s banking sector. Although the ECB’s willingness to provide ample liquidity should ensure the... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outperformance of emerging equities looks here to stay The performance of emerging market (EM) equities in 2010 has been disappointing relative to last year but has still been better than the performance of developed market equities. The MSCI Emerging... 2nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No bubble yet in government bonds In contrast to those worrying about a possible bubble in the prices of government bonds, we expect yields in the US, Germany and UK to remain near current lows for the foreseeable future and possibly... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much do seasonal factors drive gold? Seasonal factors are a poor explanation for the recent weakness in gold prices, which instead mainly reflects lower demand for the precious metal as a safe haven or inflation hedge. Calendar effects... 28th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold market needs some fresh impetus soon The price of gold already includes a large premium for the precious metal’s status as a refuge from economic and financial uncertainty. With inflation risks still low, it would now take a major new... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
