Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie dollar? The Australian dollar has rebounded in June despite the ongoing slide in commodity prices. The currency’s recovery has probably been due to a subtle shift in investors’ expectations about the relative... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries the real deal? The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fleetingly dipped below 1.7% last week – its lowest level on record. We do not expect to witness a major sell-off any time soon – our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? The crisis in the euro-zone has exacted a heavy toll on regional stock markets. The sharp falls in equity prices have driven valuations down to attractive levels in many Member States, both relative... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update When will equities triumph over bonds again? US government bonds have fared much better than the US stock market since the beginning of this century. However, this trend is probably nearing an end. Admittedly, we do not expect equities to start... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Patience could be a virtue in the UK stock market What return can investors in the UK stock market realistically expect? Our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts for the FTSE 100 are 5,300, a drop of around 4% from its current level. We anticipate that... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bank of Japan running out of room to surprise On Friday the Bank of Japan is widely expected to announce another large increase in purchases of JGBs under its Asset Purchase Program (APP). Indeed, some commentators appear to believe that Japan’s... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turn in the US profit cycle looms US corporate profits have grown significantly in the nearly three years since the end of the last recession. Admittedly, there are structural reasons why the share of profits in corporate output may... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bunds increasingly vulnerable to erosion of safe haven status German government bonds are still regarded as a safe haven, allowing them to benefit from concerns about the global economy and the rolling crisis in the periphery of the euro-zone. Some of the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011? The recent slump in global equities is prompting comparisons with 2011, when the prices of riskier assets also fell away after a confident start. Our view is that the US economy will be more resilient... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011? The recent slump in global equities is prompting comparisons with 2011, when the prices of riskier assets also fell away after a confident start. Our view is that the US economy will be more resilient... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
