Global Markets Update US Treasuries – lessons from Japan? A messy break-up of the euro-zone could see the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hit a new low. But the US does not appear set for a long period of deflation. Any crisis-driven decline in the yield... 13th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next after five years of credit crunch? Tomorrow marks the five year anniversary of the unofficial onset of the global credit crunch. For investors, the past half decade has been characterised by a very healthy US Treasury market, a... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bounce in the euro likely to prove temporary The euro touched its highest level against the dollar in over a month on Monday, as the exchange rate temporarily climbed above $1.24. Yet we doubt it will be long before Europe’s single currency... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Could nominal bond yields fall even further below zero? The emergence of negative yields on some short-dated government bonds raises the question of whether they could fall even further. We suspect the answer is yes, at least in those European countries... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little respite in sight for the euro The euro’s slide against the dollar is unlikely to end any time soon. Admittedly, the exchange rate is already at a two year low. But an escalation of the euro-zone crisis and a deep recession should... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sluggish corporate earnings to weigh on the US stock market The Q2 earnings season kicks off in the US next week. The story that is likely to emerge is one of slower profit growth. And looking further ahead, the news is likely to get worse. This is a key... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the markets right to shrug off the US ISM? The markets have taken the alarmingly weak US ISM data in their stride, seemingly banking on European policymakers and the US Fed to turn things around quickly. This muted reaction looks complacent to... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Aussie dollar? The Australian dollar has rebounded in June despite the ongoing slide in commodity prices. The currency’s recovery has probably been due to a subtle shift in investors’ expectations about the relative... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts We have revised some of our key market forecasts for government bonds, equities, commodities and currencies. The new forecasts are presented in the table at the bottom of this page. The major changes... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Treasuries the real deal? The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fleetingly dipped below 1.7% last week – its lowest level on record. We do not expect to witness a major sell-off any time soon – our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for euro-zone equities? The crisis in the euro-zone has exacted a heavy toll on regional stock markets. The sharp falls in equity prices have driven valuations down to attractive levels in many Member States, both relative... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update When will equities triumph over bonds again? US government bonds have fared much better than the US stock market since the beginning of this century. However, this trend is probably nearing an end. Admittedly, we do not expect equities to start... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Patience could be a virtue in the UK stock market What return can investors in the UK stock market realistically expect? Our end-2012 and end-2013 forecasts for the FTSE 100 are 5,300, a drop of around 4% from its current level. We anticipate that... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read