Global Markets Update How significant are Japan's overseas bond purchases? The fact that Japanese investors have again started to buy foreign bonds is far from the “game changer” for global financial markets that the recent headlines might suggest. Indeed, it isn’t even such... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the euro vulnerable to a shift in ECB policy? Last Thursday’s cut in the ECB’s refinancing rate and hints from the central bank’s President that the deposit rate could be reduced below zero have weighed on the euro. But the fall in the exchange... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fears of a bubble forming in EM bonds now seem overdone Although the tone of this week’s FOMC statement suggests the US central bank is unlikely to taper its asset purchases imminently, we still think dollar-denominated emerging market (EM) government... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the weakness in oil prices? The recent slump in the cost of Brent crude can be explained by the fragility of the global economy, without appealing to the influence of industry-specific factors that are more likely to be... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the yen? The failure of the yen to weaken past 100 to the dollar has caused some second thoughts in the markets, but we continue to expect the Japanese currency to fall substantially further. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE not necessarily the end of the world Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE3 might not trigger a rise in UST term premiums One counter-argument to our view that the scaling back of QE3 would not trigger a rise in US Treasury yields is that "term premiums" would soar. However, the evidence is mixed. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still plenty of upside for gold The gold market was hit yesterday both by the prospect of an early end to the Fed’s quantitative easing and by speculation that Cyprus could be the first of the troubled euro-zone countries to sell... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How dependent are low US Treasury yields on QE3? The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might Japan’s easing mean for the rest of the world? The more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan has had a major impact on the yen and the relative performance of Japanese equities. But speculation that Japan’s additional monetary... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei? The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Foreign enthusiasm for Japan starts to fade The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board which concludes next Thursday (4th April) will be the first under Haruhiko Kuroda’s leadership. Unfortunately, the markets’ expectations of the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long before US corporate profit margins are squeezed? Although the profit share in the US corporate sector is likely to have remained at a very high level in Q4 2012, we continue to expect margins to be squeezed this year. Further gains in the stock... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to forget about Cyprus The events in Cyprus provide another very visible – albeit extreme – illustration of the financial problems which are holding back the global recovery. Indeed, even though the Cypriot economy itself... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will there be more contagion from the crisis in Cyprus? The negative reaction in Europe’s financial markets to the decision to "bail in" depositors in Cyprus has been fairly muted so far. Admittedly, the euro fell below $1.30 against the dollar on Monday... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the Cyprus crisis means for the rest of the world A further escalation of the crisis in tiny Cyprus may have global implications well beyond the immediate market reactions today. It could influence the course of fiscal policy in the UK and monetary... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
