Global Markets Update EM equities set to underperform further Despite the global rally over most of the past month, emerging market equities have continued to underperform developed market equities. We expect this pattern to persist. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Boost to Nikkei from weaker yen has run its course Today’s slump is not necessarily the end of the bull market in Japanese equities, but the next few months will be much harder going. We continue to expect the Nikkei to fall further, probably below 13... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long can the current equity rally last? Our view from the outset has been that 2013 would be a year of two halves for risky assets, with a strong start eventually giving way to renewed weakness. In the event, while we were correct to be... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM local currency government bonds? The prospect of an extended period of loose monetary policy facilitated by low inflation should provide ongoing support to many emerging market (EM) local currency government bonds. However, we expect... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s behind the surge in JGB yields? The jump in the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in the last few days probably reflects a confluence of many factors, including speculation that domestic institutions are set to step up... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why QE helps equities more than commodities There are three main reasons why further monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing (QE), is likely to benefit equities more than it benefits the prices of industrial commodities, including... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How significant are Japan's overseas bond purchases? The fact that Japanese investors have again started to buy foreign bonds is far from the “game changer” for global financial markets that the recent headlines might suggest. Indeed, it isn’t even such... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the euro vulnerable to a shift in ECB policy? Last Thursday’s cut in the ECB’s refinancing rate and hints from the central bank’s President that the deposit rate could be reduced below zero have weighed on the euro. But the fall in the exchange... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fears of a bubble forming in EM bonds now seem overdone Although the tone of this week’s FOMC statement suggests the US central bank is unlikely to taper its asset purchases imminently, we still think dollar-denominated emerging market (EM) government... 3rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the weakness in oil prices? The recent slump in the cost of Brent crude can be explained by the fragility of the global economy, without appealing to the influence of industry-specific factors that are more likely to be... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the yen? The failure of the yen to weaken past 100 to the dollar has caused some second thoughts in the markets, but we continue to expect the Japanese currency to fall substantially further. 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE not necessarily the end of the world Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE3 might not trigger a rise in UST term premiums One counter-argument to our view that the scaling back of QE3 would not trigger a rise in US Treasury yields is that "term premiums" would soar. However, the evidence is mixed. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still plenty of upside for gold The gold market was hit yesterday both by the prospect of an early end to the Fed’s quantitative easing and by speculation that Cyprus could be the first of the troubled euro-zone countries to sell... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How dependent are low US Treasury yields on QE3? The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might Japan’s easing mean for the rest of the world? The more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan has had a major impact on the yen and the relative performance of Japanese equities. But speculation that Japan’s additional monetary... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read