Global Markets Update Narrowing in euro-zone bond spreads may have run its course With Germany unlikely to alter its hardline approach towards the euro-zone’s more troubled governments following last weekend’s federal election, we doubt that the credit spreads of peripheral euro... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of yet another US debt-ceiling crisis The prospect of a US Federal government shutdown is likely to undermine equity prices further in the coming days, despite the possibility that the resulting uncertainty could prevent the US central... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the tide turning? EPFR Global data for July and August suggest that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging markets (EMs) may have remained negative in Q3 2013 for the second quarter running amid ongoing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can sterling’s summer rally be sustained? It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of the FOMC's attitude to tapering We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of the FOMC’s largely unexpected decision to delay a tapering of its asset purchases. The new numbers are presented in the tables on pages 1 and 2... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are European equities really undervalued? Strong investor flows into European equities since the start of the year have partly been driven by a perception that valuations are favourable. But while the headline metrics suggest that European... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who will pick up the slack when the Fed stops buying? One of the market’s concerns ahead of the Fed taper is whether there will still be sufficient demand for Treasuries from other investors to prevent a further surge in yields when the US central bank... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global implications of Fed tapering Whether at next week’s FOMC meeting or later this year, the Fed will almost certainly decide to scale back its asset purchases in the months ahead. However, Fed tapering is unlikely to be the major... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Consumption tax – not Olympics – key to Nikkei outlook The headlines in Japan today have been dominated by the successful Olympics bid, but there will be many decisions with much greater economic and market significance to be taken before 2020 – not least... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What effect will Germany's election have on euro-zone bonds? Germany will probably continue to provide temporary support for troubled euro-zone countries but retain an emphasis on austerity after its election later this month. This should minimise the demand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Accounting for stock market overvaluation One criticism levelled at Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is that – for the S&P 500 at least – the denominator has been depressed by accounting changes. This has led... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why is ‘forward guidance’ failing to anchor long-term Gilts? The MPC’s commitment to keep interest rates on hold has failed to prevent the yield on 10-year Gilts rising by more than that on US Treasuries. But we think the difference in monetary policy prospects... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How has the Bank of Japan kept yields low? The surge in the yields of US Treasuries since May has been mirrored, to varying degrees, in most other advanced economies. In contrast, the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have decoupled... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will emerging market currencies suffer a re-run of 2008? The extent of the latest rout in emerging market currencies has prompted comparisons with previous crises, such as that in the autumn of 2008. But we suspect some recovery may be around the corner... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for Emerging European equities are Poles apart A number of equity markets in Emerging Europe – Poland’s in particular – have proved relatively resilient during the recent emerging market sell-off. We think they may continue to outperform equities... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the Brazilian bond market gone nuts? We doubt the recent significant underperformance of Brazil’s local currency government bonds will last. A surge in yields has been mainly driven by expectations of much more aggressive monetary... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
