Global Markets Update How vulnerable are foreign investors to a default on Treasuries? Expectations were growing on Tuesday that US lawmakers would soon reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling before the Treasury runs out of cash. But there is still an outside chance that a deal... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What impact would a US default have on Treasuries? In the event of the US government failing to service its debts, there are some good reasons to argue that Treasury yields would jump and others to suggest that they would actually fall. Our view is... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets remain sanguine about risks of US default Despite all the understandable concerns, market pricing suggests that most investors are still fairlyrelaxed about the chances that the US government will default on its debt. As it happens, we think... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Nikkei set to outperform again Japanese equities have dropped further than their peers so far this month and are among the most vulnerable to the fall-out from a potential US government default. Nonetheless, once the debt-ceiling... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gilt yields to remain low despite strengthening UK economy Today we have revised up our UK GDP growth forecasts. But we still think that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates until 2017 at the earliest. As a result, we anticipate that Gilt yields... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will emerging market equities continue to recover? The rebound in emerging market (EM) equities in September partly reflected the markets’ growing realisation that the Fed is likely to withdraw its monetary stimulus only very slowly. In addition... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Narrowing in euro-zone bond spreads may have run its course With Germany unlikely to alter its hardline approach towards the euro-zone’s more troubled governments following last weekend’s federal election, we doubt that the credit spreads of peripheral euro... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of yet another US debt-ceiling crisis The prospect of a US Federal government shutdown is likely to undermine equity prices further in the coming days, despite the possibility that the resulting uncertainty could prevent the US central... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the tide turning? EPFR Global data for July and August suggest that ETF and mutual fund portfolio flows into emerging markets (EMs) may have remained negative in Q3 2013 for the second quarter running amid ongoing... 24th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can sterling’s summer rally be sustained? It should only be a matter of time before the recent fall in the number of people losing their job is followed by a rise in the number of people finding a job. Less firing and more hiring is obviously... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The market implications of the FOMC's attitude to tapering We have reviewed our key market forecasts in light of the FOMC’s largely unexpected decision to delay a tapering of its asset purchases. The new numbers are presented in the tables on pages 1 and 2... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are European equities really undervalued? Strong investor flows into European equities since the start of the year have partly been driven by a perception that valuations are favourable. But while the headline metrics suggest that European... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who will pick up the slack when the Fed stops buying? One of the market’s concerns ahead of the Fed taper is whether there will still be sufficient demand for Treasuries from other investors to prevent a further surge in yields when the US central bank... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global implications of Fed tapering Whether at next week’s FOMC meeting or later this year, the Fed will almost certainly decide to scale back its asset purchases in the months ahead. However, Fed tapering is unlikely to be the major... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Consumption tax – not Olympics – key to Nikkei outlook The headlines in Japan today have been dominated by the successful Olympics bid, but there will be many decisions with much greater economic and market significance to be taken before 2020 – not least... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What effect will Germany's election have on euro-zone bonds? Germany will probably continue to provide temporary support for troubled euro-zone countries but retain an emphasis on austerity after its election later this month. This should minimise the demand... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read