Global Markets Update A macroeconomic approach to US stock market valuation The valuation of the US stock market does not appear as high when quantified with macroeconomic data as it does when a more conventional approach is taken. What’s more, we continue to think that the... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls (advanced economies) This note summarises our key calls for the advanced economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would it be a big deal if A-shares were included in the MSCI? Many commentators have speculated that MSCI will add China’s “A-shares” to the MSCI China Index at its Annual Market Classification Review on 9th June. This would boost China’s weighting in its wider... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this really the start of a bear market in Bunds? Although the yields of German Bunds have risen significantly since late-April, we doubt they will continue to surge given the prospects for ECB policy and the probability of renewed safe-haven flows... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed dollar strength has further to go Diverging prospects for economic growth and monetary policy point to additional gains for the dollar this year, especially against the euro and the yen. The real possibility that Greece will be the... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the MSCI EM Asia Index? Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Yen to fall to 140 against the US dollar The yen’s tentative break of 120 against the dollar in the past week has refocused attention on the currency pair after several months of stability. We continue to expect the yen to weaken... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which currencies are fundamentally misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) soon. These are likely to suggest that... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is a rise in Treasury yields a threat to the US stock market? We are sceptical that a further sell-off in Treasuries would drive the US stock market down, as some are suggesting. Although we forecast that the 10-year US government bond yield will continue to... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US and euro-zone government bonds? While government bonds in the US and the euro-zone have both been rattled by a rebound in the price of oil, we think other factors will start to play a more important role in determining their fate. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four reasons to worry about the UK election The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s been driving up the MSCI EM Asia Index? Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
