Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four reasons to worry about the UK election The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s been driving up the MSCI EM Asia Index? Net foreign purchases of equities are published on a daily basis in five of the eight countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Index – India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for UK Gilts? We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year Gilt yield in recognition of the fact that monetary policy in the UK is likely to be tightened even more gradually than we had previously anticipated... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will gilts fare following the UK election? Historically, the yield of 10-year gilts has sometimes moved immediately upon a surprise election result and over the next six months in response to sweeping reforms of a newly elected government... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE provide more fuel for euro-zone bonds? While the anticipation and launch of looser unconventional monetary policy in the euro-zone appears to have depressed the yields of bonds issued by the region’s more troubled governments, the boost... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets still under-pricing “Grexit” risks The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The dollar and the US stock market – a historical perspective The performance of the US stock market has varied significantly during the four periods in which the dollar has strengthened considerably since it became a free-floating currency in the early 1970s... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors regain their appetite for EM assets In February, there was a net flow into global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging markets for the month since September. In particular, funds dedicated to investing in equities in Emerging... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the turn in the dollar The last few days have seen a sharp reversal in the tone of commentary on the dollar: speculation about a surge to parity against the euro has been replaced by talk that the broad-based rally is over... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the Fed’s new projections Downward revisions to FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate have triggered a significant rally in Treasuries and taken some heat out of the dollar. But our expectation is that the... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls on major economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. In particular, we forecast US interest rates to rise sooner and further than... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will euro-zone sovereign credit spreads grind even lower? The yield spreads of 10-year Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds recently fell below 100bp for the first time since 2010. Given their grind lower since the summer of 2012, it is... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read