Global Markets Update We expect euro-zone equities to continue to recover Although the Volkswagen emissions scandal refuses to go away, euro-zone equities have performed well recently, bolstered by a weaker euro amid growing expectations that the ECB will add additional... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields set to rise (even if first rate hike is in Q1) Whether or not the FOMC decides to raise rates for the first time in December or early next year, we think Treasury yields will climb from their current levels for two key reasons. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turkish relief rally unlikely to last The relief rally in Turkish markets is likely to fizzle out before long as it becomes clear that the AK Party will deliver more of the same. Our expectation is that equities will lag behind those... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening wouldn’t let the ECB or BoJ off the hook Some commentators have suggested that the prospect of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and the resulting appreciation of the US dollar will significantly reduce the pressure on the ECB and BoJ to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising portfolio investment another positive for EM markets Notwithstanding the risk of occasional hiccups, portfolio flows should support decent returns in EM financial markets during the next couple of years. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might strong US GDP data mean for equities? With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed to hike more than expected, but global fallout to be limited While the FOMC meeting will surely conclude today with no change in policy, we continue to expect US interest rates to be raised more than the markets anticipate in 2016 and beyond. Nonetheless, this... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How might another debt-ceiling crisis affect US markets? Equities are likely to suffer in the event of yet another damaging stand-off over the US federal debt ceiling. However, a resurgence in safe-haven demand and expectations that the Fed would wait even... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More support for EM equities on the way Attractive valuations, loose global monetary conditions and a recovery in China should support further gains in emerging market equities. Indeed, we continue to expect the MSCI Emerging Markets Index... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reassessing currency misalignment The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What do the new COFER data tell us about China’s reserves? China appears to hold a larger than average share of its fx reserves in US dollars, UK pounds and Australian dollars at the expense of euros and the Japanese yen. This is the conclusion we have... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Few winners from weak US payrolls The disappointing US jobs report for September will clearly do little to improve investor confidence in the global economy. Yes, it will probably delay the first interest rate hike from the Fed until... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does competitiveness influence EM stock market performance? The progress on structural reforms made by many emerging market economies over the past year bodes well for the performance of their stock markets over the long run. And although other factors are... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will China fuel a recovery in German automobile shares? While the emissions scandal has been responsible for the recent plunge in the share price of Volkswagen Group, the bigger picture is that the share prices of German car manufacturers have been sliding... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed hike still coming soon (which should be good news) Fed Chair Janet Yellen used a speech last night to send a pretty clear signal that US interest rates are still likely to be raised later this year, despite the hesitancy last week. This shouldn’t be a... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
