Global Markets Update Is the worst now over for the major commodity currencies? The dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada have come under fire again, as the prices of the commodities that they export have dropped back. We think these prices are likely to recover a little... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Spanish government bonds fairly priced? Spain has been one of the stand-out economies in the euro-zone this year. However, the recent political developments in Catalonia and Portugal are a source of concern and opinion polls suggest that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's in store for the UK stock market? The UK stock market has performed poorly on an absolute and relative basis in 2015, dragged down by sharp falls in the basic materials and oil & gas sectors. These two sectors account for around one... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US equities remain out of favour? Since the end of the last recession, there has been an almost interrupted net outflow from US mutual funds that invest in domestic equities. This partly reflects investors’ growing preference for... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets look set to take first Fed rate hike in their stride The relatively calm reactions to Friday’s strong US employment report support our view that the gradual return of US interest rates towards more normal levels is unlikely to be the seismic shock that... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations suggest prospects brighter for EM than DM equities The valuation of emerging market (EM) equities relative to those in the developed world is the lowest it has been in recent memory. All else equal, this ought to lead to superior returns over the... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect euro-zone equities to continue to recover Although the Volkswagen emissions scandal refuses to go away, euro-zone equities have performed well recently, bolstered by a weaker euro amid growing expectations that the ECB will add additional... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields set to rise (even if first rate hike is in Q1) Whether or not the FOMC decides to raise rates for the first time in December or early next year, we think Treasury yields will climb from their current levels for two key reasons. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turkish relief rally unlikely to last The relief rally in Turkish markets is likely to fizzle out before long as it becomes clear that the AK Party will deliver more of the same. Our expectation is that equities will lag behind those... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening wouldn’t let the ECB or BoJ off the hook Some commentators have suggested that the prospect of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and the resulting appreciation of the US dollar will significantly reduce the pressure on the ECB and BoJ to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising portfolio investment another positive for EM markets Notwithstanding the risk of occasional hiccups, portfolio flows should support decent returns in EM financial markets during the next couple of years. 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might strong US GDP data mean for equities? With the FOMC almost certain to leave interest rates on hold later today, the event which is perhaps more likely to move US markets this week could be the advance (first) estimate for Q3 GDP... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed to hike more than expected, but global fallout to be limited While the FOMC meeting will surely conclude today with no change in policy, we continue to expect US interest rates to be raised more than the markets anticipate in 2016 and beyond. Nonetheless, this... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How might another debt-ceiling crisis affect US markets? Equities are likely to suffer in the event of yet another damaging stand-off over the US federal debt ceiling. However, a resurgence in safe-haven demand and expectations that the Fed would wait even... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More support for EM equities on the way Attractive valuations, loose global monetary conditions and a recovery in China should support further gains in emerging market equities. Indeed, we continue to expect the MSCI Emerging Markets Index... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read