Global Markets Update Will commodities be top of the flops again in 2016? 2015 was a year to forget for most investors. Commodities were routed ... again. Equities struggled, especially in emerging markets. And bonds generally failed to shine. There should be more to cheer... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Spanish government bonds to weather political uncertainty The better-than-expected showing from Podemos in Sunday’s general election looks likely to usher in a period of political uncertainty in Spain, which could lead to an anti-austerity government in the... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities to outperform again as yen falls further A combination of fading fears over China and additional yen weakness, as the Bank of Japan steps up the pace of its asset purchases, should allow Japanese equities to outperform their US peers in 2016... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets continue to react well to Fed rate hikes? The positive reaction of many riskier assets to Fed “lift-off” supports our view that they will perform well in 2016. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update 10 key calls for 2016 With 2016 looming large, this Global Markets Update contains 10 of our key market calls for the year ahead. 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets to shrug off first Fed hike, but faster tightening to come A widely-anticipated Fed rate hike next week would probably not cause panic in financial markets. However, our view that the Fed will eventually raise rates faster than expected leads us to conclude... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Longer-dated Bund yields to rise as ECB diversifies purchases After failing to live up to its own hype last week, we would not be surprised if the ECB is forced to increase its monthly asset purchases after all next year. But even if it does, we think that the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we wrong on EM equities? The renewed slump in emerging market (EM) equities perhaps calls into question our view that they will perform well in 2016/17. But the latest declines have been driven by a fall in commodity prices... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries remain exposed to tighter Fed policy Today’s US Employment Report bolsters our view that the future stance of Fed policy will put upward pressure on Treasury yields over the next couple of years. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s in store for US high-yield corporate bonds? US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewed fall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do not think... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar strength unlikely to alter outlooks for monetary policy Being long of the dollar is reportedly one of the most crowded trades in the market. However, we stillthink that the US currency has further to climb against other majors. Indeed, we now expect the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued Some claim that the US stock market is heading for a collapse because they assume that its price/earnings ratio will inevitably plummet to its long-run average. This assumption is wrong if, as seems... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Much more to EM currencies than interest rate differentials Unlike in developed markets, interest rate differentials are not a particularly good guide to currency movements in emerging markets (EMs). Accordingly, while there will be bumps in the road, we do... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally shows EM markets can withstand Fed tightening The positive reaction by investors to the minutes from October’s FOMC meeting supports our view that emerging markets (EM) will fare relatively well in 2016/17 as US interest rates are raised. We... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will US equities and government bonds fare? US equities have fared better than US Treasuries in 2015. We suspect that this will remain the case over the next couple of years, as the Fed tightens monetary policy. Nonetheless, the longer-term... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read