Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We think sub-zero long-term JGB yields lie ahead We expect the Bank of Japan to reduce its deposit rate much further into negative territory over the course of the next year. (See our Japan Economics service for details.) This reinforces our view... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Mixed outlook for the major commodity currencies The recovery in commodity prices over the last week or so has eased the selling pressure on the dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada since the start of the year. However, we wouldn’t be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities ripe for a rebound In the light of the recent turmoil we are revising our forecasts for Japan’s currency and equity prices. Nonetheless, we continue to expect a combination of better news from China, a partial recovery... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the dollar? We have reduced the amount by which we forecast the dollar to strengthen against the euro and the yen this year, but increased the amount by which we project that it will appreciate against sterling... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Portuguese government bond spreads likely to creep higher The recent rise in Portuguese government bond yields appears to be largely due to a general increase in risk aversion, rather than factors specifically related to Portugal. However, we think that... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be worried about Sovereign Wealth Funds? The collapse in oil prices has prompted concerns that many sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) will be forced to liquidate their vast holdings of financial assets, thereby putting further pressure on market... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will UK equities continue to outperform in 2016? It might seem surprising that the UK stock market has outperformed its peers recently, given the ongoing pressure on commodity prices. After all, the share of firms in commodity sectors is relatively... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market really heading for a crash? The S&P 500 has shown signs of stabilising after a terrible start to the year. Many expect this to be a lull in the storm. But while there are at least eight reasons to be fearful of a major... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Two worrying signals for the US stock market The equity bears have latched on to two recent developments in the US stock market. However, we don’t see either as a signal of its impending collapse. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling likely to fall further against the dollar, but not the euro After peaking in mid-November, sterling has fallen nearly 5% on a trade-weighted basis, making it the worst performing major currency bar the Canadian dollar over this period. The weakness will be... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in the yen run out of steam? The yen has been the strongest of the major currencies since the end of November. Not only has Japan’s currency benefited from the recent turmoil in global financial markets, but it has also been... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the sell-off in EM equities really justified? The latest sell-off in equity markets in the emerging world is largely due to bad communication by the People’s Bank of China. Indeed, with many emerging market (EM) economies showing some signs of... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update On the link between US economic, equity and credit cycles An increase in Moody’s seasoned Baa-rated US corporate bond yield preceded all seven recessions that have taken place in the US in the past fifty years. What’s more, in six of those cases, the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of renewed intervention in China Renewed intervention by the authorities in China may not be enough to prevent further falls in local equity markets, but even in the event of a sell-off the macroeconomic consequences should be small... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read