Global Markets Update Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher? The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further yen weakness and Nikkei gains ahead The Japanese yen remains on course for our long-held forecast of 120 against the dollar next year, which is based largely on our view that the Fed will raise US interest rates more aggressively than... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM currencies? Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries? More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US corporate bonds? We think that the resilience of US corporate bonds since Donald Trump won the race to the White House is a sign of things to come, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy significantly. 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our EM markets forecasts The slump in emerging markets (EMs) since Donald Trump pulled off the shock of the century has so far been relatively mild, and we are not making wholesale changes to our forecasts. Trump’s victory... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will European bonds fare better than US Treasuries? In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we are nudging up our forecasts for government bond yields in Europe. But we still don’t expect that they will rise as fast as in... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New – even more bearish – forecasts for Treasuries We are revising our forecasts for US Treasuries in response to the possibility of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. We are, however, retaining our forecasts for the S&P 500. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brexit minus, minus, minus? The initial reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s victory has not been as large as we expected and many of the moves have now been largely unwound. Nonetheless, the rebounds that we have seen are... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar? Whoever wins the US presidential election, the recent uneven performance of the US dollar is likely to continue. If – as seems increasingly likely – Hillary Clinton emerges victorious, we would expect... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a Trump win really be bad for the S&P 500? The consensus is that a victory for Donald Trump in next Tuesday’s presidential election would deal a lasting blow to the US stock market. Our sense, though, is that the performance of the S&P 500... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Brazilian equities continue to outperform After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read