Global Markets Update Rebound in EM currencies unlikely to last Having lost ground against the dollar in the aftermath of the US elections, emerging market (EM) currencies have staged a recovery since President Trump’s inauguration. Nonetheless, we still expect... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will equities react to Trump’s “phenomenal” tax plan? An overhaul of the US corporate tax code would probably provide a net boost to S&P 500 earnings. Nonetheless, we suspect that it would be small and that it has now been largely discounted in equity... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising inflation expectations to lift Treasury yields further While US break-even inflation rates have recently risen, this appears primarily to reflect increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook. As actual expectations for inflation rise and investors... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities? The latest rise in industrial metals prices has provided a welcome fillip to emerging market equities, which are now at their highest level for more than a year and a half. However, we think that this... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the Japanese keep shunning Treasuries? The news that Japanese investors have been selling large amounts of US Treasuries reinforces our view that reduced appetite from overseas investors will play a role in driving up their yields this... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will Fed tightening mean for EM dollar bonds? Although emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds yields have fallen during the past two bouts of US monetary tightening, this time around we expect them to rise as aggressive rate... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets right to be taking President Trump in their stride? Investors have turned a blind eye to the controversy and chaos that has characterised President Trump’s first ten days in the White House. Such indifference may prove to be complacent. The longer his... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets What does history tell us about interest rates and the dollar? We expect the dollar to regain the ground it has lost this year and to strengthen further, as interest rates and bond yields in the US climb by more than investors are anticipating. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the dollar really “very, very strong”? The dollar has ceded ground recently amid speculation that the Trump administration will seek to bring it down. Indeed, the new president’s nomination for Secretary of the Treasury has reportedly... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are corporate credit spreads set to narrow in 2017? As commodity prices recovered and fears of a hard landing in China faded, corporate bonds delivered healthy returns in the US and euro-zone last year, and credit spreads narrowed. However, as the bull... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have we got the EMBI wrong? We doubt that the rally in emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds will last much longer, as the sell-off in US Treasuries resumes and one-off supportive factors unwind. 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much should we make of the strength of the FTSE? The widespread pessimism about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017 seems at odds with the continued gains in UK equity prices. This can partly be explained, of course, by the importance of overseas... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to climb even further against the euro and yen We are revising up our forecasts for the US dollar against the euro and the yen to reflect our view that the contrast between the policies of the Fed on the one hand and the ECB and the BoJ on the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turning even more bearish on US Treasuries We are revising up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield for three key reasons. The first relates to the outlook for interest rates. The second relates to compensation for uncertainty. And the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US equities fare better under Trump than Reagan? The Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past, by being characterised by looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies. With this in mind, how is the performance of the US... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trumponomics, Reaganomics and the US dollar Although we expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen, we doubt that it will climb as high as it did in the early 1980s. Admittedly, the Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read