Global Markets Update PBOC still wary of CNY weakness despite tariff threat The 2% fall in the renminbi since the US-China trade war flared up again reflects market pressure more than a deliberate policy choice – Chinese policymakers have actually been trying to slow its... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update S&P 500’s post-GFC surge is on borrowed time Although the rebound in US equities since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) contrasts starkly with their protracted slump after the Great Crash, it has been largely justified by a rebound in corporate... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tariffs remain a big risk for the DAX Although equities in the euro-zone have fallen sharply in the past week as the US-China trade dispute has flared up again, they are still much higher than they were at the start of the year. This... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM LC bonds unlikely to keep tracking US Treasuries While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the US dollar to make more headway We haven’t been surprised by this year’s rise in the US dollar’s value against other “majors”, despite investors’ dovish reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy. Despite its pull-back today, we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why bond investors shouldn’t dread the EU elections We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to fall further, but rebound next year We expect the yield of 10-year German government bonds to continue to drop this year, as investors factor in the prospect of even looser monetary policy in the euro-zone and demand for safe havens... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors still seem too upbeat about earnings growth As earnings season kicks off today in the US, we think that investors remain too optimistic about the global outlook for earnings per share (EPS) growth, given the prospects for the world economy... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italian & German equities likely to lag rest of the E-Z We think that euro-zone stock markets will generally fall in the rest of 2019 as global growth remains weak and appetite for risk wanes. Equities in Germany and Italy will fare particularly poorly, in... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields likely to rise despite dovish Fed Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Best-performing EM equities unlikely to stay on top We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Faltering earnings likely to take a toll on the S&P 500 Our downbeat view of the US economy is at odds with analysts’ upbeat assessment of S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). This is a key reason why we forecast that the index will drop back sharply later... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the Loonie, Aussie & Kiwi to fall this year While we think that interest rates will be cut in Canada, Australia and New Zealand over the next couple of years, we suspect that this will be more of a boost to their government bonds than a drag on... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We forecast the euro to fall more in 2019, before rallying We have revised down our already-bearish end-2019 forecast for the euro against the US dollar. Nonetheless, we still think that the exchange rate will bounce back in 2020 as looser monetary policy in... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update “Safe” bond yields may stay low for longer than in 2016 The yields of 10-year government bonds in Germany, Switzerland and Japan have edged up after touching 2½-year lows earlier this week. But we doubt that they will rebound as fast, or as far, as they... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
