Global Markets Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German equities likely to fall by less than their US peers Judging by their recent performance, more bad news is priced into German than US equities. As a result, if we are right and risky assets around the world come under pressure as global growth slows... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update QE hopes unlikely to boost BTPs for much longer While we are lowering our end-2019 and end-2020 forecasts for the 10-year BTP yield, we remain pessimistic about the near-term prospects for government bonds in Italy. 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Co-movement of equities and bonds unlikely to last While the real returns from a wide variety of assets were positive in the first half of this year, we don’t expect the good news to last. We project that those from US equities and government bonds... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ policy stance may put upward pressure on the yen We have long forecast the yen to strengthen to ¥105/$ by the end of 2019, primarily based on our expectation that a sell-off in global equities would boost the demand for safe havens. While we remain... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed easing and US equities: lessons from history While the performance of the US stock market in the Fed’s last four easing cycles was varied, our view remains that it will fall in the next one, which we expect to span from late-summer 2019 to... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think that Fed easing will boost Treasuries Although we expect the FOMC to loosen policy substantially by the spring of 2020, we are not forecasting a renewed decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to below 2%. This is because we think that the... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ trade war focus risks missing bigger picture Investors seem as pessimistic about the US-China trade war now as they have ever been. Indeed, it would probably come as little surprise to markets if the two sides imposed tariffs on virtually all... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Donald Trump, not the Fed, to blame for a strong dollar Donald Trump’s assertion on Twitter yesterday that a “way too high” Fed interest rate was responsible for a “devalued” euro and other currencies against the dollar is wrong, at least when it comes to... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the US dollar likely to be temporary Although the US dollar has pulled back over the past fortnight, we expect it to strengthen once more against most major currencies in the second half of this year as the global economy slows. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US corporate credit spreads likely to rise much further We think that corporate credit spreads in the US will continue to climb this year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the spreads of speculative-grade bonds to rise by well over 100bp, on... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy may soon be considered riskier than Greece The spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in Greece and Italy has fallen sharply following the latest European Parliament elections. We now forecast that it will turn negative... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Processing the mixed signals from US stocks and bonds While it may appear as if the US stock and bond markets are sending mixed signals about the health of the economy, it is common for equity prices to remain high while Treasuries rally in anticipation... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currencies vulnerable to renminbi depreciation The relationship between the renminbi and other emerging market currencies has strengthened in recent years. While the response to renewed US-China tensions has been limited so far, if the renminbi... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bleak outlook for Japanese equities Equities in Japan have underperformed those in other major developed markets since the start of 2018, owing to a stronger yen and weaker corporate earnings in particular. We expect this... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
