Global Markets Update Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts While UK Gilt yields might rise a bit further in the near term, we think that they will fall back before long, as the Bank of England eventually delivers more rate cuts than most anticipate. 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Is the easing cycle already priced in? Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early... 19th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update RBNZ cuts could pile the pain on New Zealand dollar We now think the RBNZ will be one of the few central banks to cut rates below neutral this cycle, which would be bad news for the New Zealand dollar. In view of the wider interest this FX Markets... 13th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The long arm of the PBOC and prospects for China’s bonds Even though the PBOC is trying to prop up local government bond yields while the Fed is gearing up to cut rates, we think bonds in China will fare a bit better than those in the US. 6th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the equity market really back to square one? While the S&P 500 is now nearly back to its all-time high in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish message at Jackson Hole, underlying risk premia are still somewhat larger than before the July... 27th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the market summer squall Conditions have stabilised after a turbulent few weeks in financial markets, and we expect the rebound in equity markets over the past week or so to continue. Our assessment is that the market fallout... 15th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update East Asian equities could outperform again before long Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then … We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns. 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response First thoughts on the global IT outage The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not... 19th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss-German bond yield spread likely to narrow slightly We anticipate the spread between 10-year Swiss and German government bond yields, which has widened significantly since 2022, will narrow only slightly over the next couple of years. 11th July 2024 · 4 mins read
