Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stabilise at low levels despite more QE Inflation has fallen sharply this year and is likely to remain low. Admittedly, the rise in the price of oil and some agricultural commodities since June will push the headline inflation rate back up... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall further as euro-zone crisis deepens Headline inflation has dropped this year in most major economies and is likely to come down further as global growth falters, the euro-zone crisis deepens and commodity prices continue to fall. We... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Rapid drop in inflation to allow more monetary stimulus Inflation is now on a downward trajectory almost everywhere as global commodity prices drop back and demand conditions weaken. Disinflation will gather pace in the first half of 2012 and inflation in... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Global inflation set to fall The slowdown in global growth and recent falls in commodity prices will feed through to lower headline and core inflation in the coming months. Indeed, headline inflation is already at or near its... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Approaching a peak Recent developments have reinforced our view that, although headline inflation will continue to rise in the coming months, it is likely to peak before the end of this year in both advanced and... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch What goes up must come down Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to fall back once food spike digested The recent surge in the prices of agricultural commodities will put upward pressure on inflation well into 2011. But inflation in most major economies still looks set to peak some way below the levels... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Deflation remains a slow-burning threat (Q2 2010) A rebound in some commodity prices and stabilisation of core inflation rates suggest that the immediate risk of deflation has diminished, but in fact it remains a significant threat in just about... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Upside inflation risks still low (even in China) (Q1 2010) Immediate fears of deflation have eased as the global economy has begun to recover. But looking beyond the headlines, underlying price pressures remain subdued and are likely to fall further. The full... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Fears of inflationary bubbles are overblown (Q4 2009) Worries about asset price bubbles, and the inflationary threat they might pose, are at best premature and at worst plain wrong. When thinking about the outlook for inflation we would continue to give... 24th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Wage deflation is the real issue (Q2 2009) The creation of new money by central banks is a sideshow compared to the disinflationary pressures still building in the real world. In particular, the risk that falling wages will trigger a... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch The return of deflation (Q3 2008) The world economy is heading for the worst recession since the 1930s and commodity prices still have further to fall. As a result, headline inflation is set to plummet and may well turn negative in... 12th November 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Back to the 1970's? (Q2 2008) The resurgence of global inflation has raised fears of a return to the “stagflation” of the 1970s. However, inflation is still very low by those standards and the inflation environment is... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Commodity boom is a house of cards (Q1 2008) Headline inflation has surged again in almost all major economies. However, inflation excluding food and energy remains subdued. While this is not a good reason for complacency, it does suggest that... 27th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Stagflation-lite (Q4 2007) The recent surge in headline inflation in many economies has raised fears of “stagflation” – a combination of rapid price increases and weak or even negative growth in economic activity. But we are... 21st December 2007 · 1 min read
