Global Inflation Watch Policy stimulus won’t boost inflation in the near term The effects of demand weakness should continue to dominate those of supply constraints, leaving underlying inflation subdued in most parts of the world over the next few years. Policy measures... 21st September 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Fragile demand to keep underlying inflation subdued Over the next few months, inflation will be dominated by oil price effects as the previous slump unwinds and headline rates rise from their current lows. Some components of core inflation, such as... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Coronavirus crisis to drag inflation down While the coronavirus crisis will have both upward and downward effects on prices, we expect the net impact to be significantly disinflationary, for the advanced economies at least, over the next year... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to change little in 2020, even as oil prices rise Inflation in developed markets is likely to be stable in 2020 as a rise in energy inflation is offset by a drop in core. We forecast oil prices to rise to over $70pb in the coming years, so energy... 20th December 2019 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Underlying inflation to soften, regardless of oil prices Inflation has fallen in most economies, due partly to lower energy inflation. Our forecast that oil prices will stabilise in the months ahead is subject to upside risks from tensions in the Middle... 20th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks shifting to the downside Price pressures have weakened further against a backdrop of worsening prospects for the global economy. The recent fall in the oil price implies that energy effects will drag on headline inflation in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Headline inflation to fall sharply in 2019 Headline inflation is set to decline in the coming months, due to the recent slump in oil prices, and we think it will remain below 2% in most advanced economies next year. Tightening labour markets... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Some signs of building price pressures Following a long period of tightening labour markets, wage pressures are mounting, and we think this will lead to a gradual pick-up in average earnings growth. Core inflation rate will probably rise... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation outlook is benign Inflation in most major advanced economies is likely to trend towards 2% over the next couple of years. Despite record-low unemployment rates, wage inflation is likely to remain fairly weak in most... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Only tentative signs of higher inflation We expect the inflation rate in the G7 economies to average less than 2% this year and next. This is partly because average earnings growth has remained weaker than might have been expected given the... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Core inflation likely to rise only gradually Many advanced economies are close to full employment, but this is likely to lead to only a small increase in price pressures. We expect the core inflation rate to edge up in the euro-zone, Japan and... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Higher inflation remains elusive Although economic activity has gathered pace this year, and many advanced economies are approaching full employment, there is no evidence of a pick-up in wage inflation. Average earnings growth has... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stay low despite strong labour markets The average inflation rate in advanced economies is likely to be close to 2% this year and next as the world economy expands steadily and key commodity prices remain fairly stable. Despite weaker CPI... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Rebound in inflation is almost over Headline inflation is now above the target in the US and close to it in the euro-zone and UK. We expect the average inflation rate in advanced economies to be fairly stable at around 2-2½% for the... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
