Global Economics Update Is the latest global inflation scare justified? The markets have swung too far from worrying about deflation towards worrying about inflation. To be sure, inflation will be higher than otherwise over the next few months as a result of the recent... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: new words, same old story The G20 Summit was always likely to be an exercise in damage limitation and in that respect it successfully papered over the many cracks between the positions of participants, at least for a few hours... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the markets running ahead of themselves? Asset prices of all types have surged following the announcement of additional QE from the US Fed, raising concerns about bubbles. The focus of these concerns has typically been on financial markets... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery to weaken in 2011-12 The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows global trade picked up in August, but that the pace of recovery has already slowed sharply this year. We believe trade growth will ease further in coming months and... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we on the cusp of a currency war? Last night Brazil’s Finance Minister reportedly warned of a global “currency war”. We think direct currency intervention by policymakers in the major western developed economies at least is very... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big an inflation threat are rising food prices? Rising food prices will put some further upward pressure on headline inflation in the US and Europe, but the impact should be smaller than during the 2007/08 shock, and just as temporary. The picture... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery to continue but threats remain The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade rose in May. We expect the pace of recovery to slow sharply later this year and in 2011 as the world economic upswing loses momentum. In addition... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery starting to lose momentum The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade fell back in April, albeit after a large gain in March. We expect the pace of recovery to slow more markedly later this year and in 2011 as the... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade growth set to slow into 2011 The latest CPB data suggest that global merchandise trade climbed at a fast pace in March. We have recently upgraded our global GDP forecasts and accordingly have lifted our world trade projections... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Canada first to hike rates in the G7 The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight rate by 0.25% today, to 0.50%, making Canada the first G7 country to see a rate hike. However, the tone of the accompanying statement suggests that this is... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Big picture still dominated by fiscal challenges Despite the turmoil in financial markets, the near-term outlook for the world economy is brighter than a few months ago. Nonetheless, a seemingly impressive rebound in 2010 is likely to give way to... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK election ushers in the Great Squeeze Tomorrow’s general election will mark the beginning of a new and difficult phase for the UK economy. Get ready for the Great Squeeze. 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
