Global Economics Update Asia leading the pick-up in world trade Today’s CPB release shows global merchandise trade picked up m/m in June, its first meaningful gain since July 2008. But while the data confirm that Asia is leading the rebound in world trade, we... 26th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s the story on inflation expectations? Another high-profile investor survey, published today, illustrates market concerns that inflation could surge out of control as a result of the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus now in place... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly will world trade recover? Today’s CPB survey suggests that world trade continued to decline in May, albeit at a much slower rate. We expect a rebound in the coming months. However, the pick-up from then on is likely to be... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Asia recovering, but emerging markets in Europe still sick 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central banks not losing faith in the dollar The People’s Bank of China is again calling for an alternative to the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. Words are cheap. There is strong evidence that central bank purchases of dollars... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to world trade? World trade may be close to stabilising after the unprecedented slump that began last September, but there are few signs yet of a meaningful recovery. We now expect merchandise trade volumes to fall... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the loss of capacity a serious inflationary threat? Several commentators have argued that inflation will pick up sooner than generally anticipated as a result of a permanent loss of capacity during the recession. However, it seems just as likely that... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 delivers (in part) on trade finance The London Summit failed to break any new ground on a global fiscal stimulus or support for the financial sector, but it has at least promised generous increases in funding for the IMF and additional... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism? We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. 1st April 2009 · 1 min read
