Global Economics Update Natural disasters vs. financial shocks The economic costs of natural disasters, although nowhere near as important as the loss of life, are typically much less than those of major financial shocks. A discussion of why this is the case... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will Japan's nuclear crisis affect world energy markets? Once the immediate uncertainty clears, Japan’s nuclear crisis is likely to have only a limited impact on global energy markets. The events in Fukushima will raise concerns about costs and security... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global recovery strong for now, but set to slow The latest leading indicators reveal plenty of momentum behind the recovery on both sides of the Atlantic. However, we still expect global growth to slow in the second half of the year and into 2012... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How does this oil price spike compare with history? The current spike in oil prices has inevitably led to comparisons with other episodes when prices have surged over a relatively short period. The last five such episodes were all followed by global... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil spike alone unlikely to cause a global recession The turmoil in the Middle East has prompted a chorus of warnings that the world economy could be dragged back into recession if the price of oil continues to climb. We were already expecting global... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is gold heading for a replay of 1980? One obvious beneficiary of the continuing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the price of gold, which has again popped above $1,400 per oz. Indeed, there are plenty of parallels with the... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 struggles to find common ground on imbalances This weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors appears to have achieved as little as expected. The most substantive decision was to agree a list of indicators which will be... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could SDRs challenge the dollar? When G20 Finance Ministers hold their first meeting of the year this weekend, one of the issues on the agenda will be reform of the International Monetary System, including a proposal to promote the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Tunisian crisis mean for the Middle East? Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Food or energy - which is the greatest inflation threat? The upward pressure on inflation this year from the recent surge in the cost of agricultural commodities will be much greater than that from the pick-up in oil prices. Fortunately from this... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will 2011 hold for emerging markets? We expect growth in emerging economies to stay strong in 2011 and, generally speaking, the major challenge facing policymakers will be to ensure that inflation remains contained and that capital... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bah, humbug! Recovery set to disappoint The additional fiscal stimulus in the US and the ongoing credit boom in China have improved the near-term prospects for the global economy, but they do nothing to resolve the underlying imbalances... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The beginning of the end for global imbalances? One of the biggest risks facing the world economy is a lurch towards protectionism, culminating in a trade war between the US and China that would threaten to spill over to other countries. We expect... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the global recovery back on track? A run of improving data from the US, Europe and Emerging Asia (especially China) has raised hopes that global growth is accelerating again after a temporary slowdown over the summer. Earlier fears of... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Limited help for commodities from China The Chinese economy appears to be heading for a soft landing, but any support for global commodity prices is likely to be short-lived. 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
