Global Economics Update How big an inflation threat are rising food prices? Rising food prices will put some further upward pressure on headline inflation in the US and Europe, but the impact should be smaller than during the 2007/08 shock, and just as temporary. The picture... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery to continue but threats remain The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade rose in May. We expect the pace of recovery to slow sharply later this year and in 2011 as the world economic upswing loses momentum. In addition... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery starting to lose momentum The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade fell back in April, albeit after a large gain in March. We expect the pace of recovery to slow more markedly later this year and in 2011 as the... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade growth set to slow into 2011 The latest CPB data suggest that global merchandise trade climbed at a fast pace in March. We have recently upgraded our global GDP forecasts and accordingly have lifted our world trade projections... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Canada first to hike rates in the G7 The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight rate by 0.25% today, to 0.50%, making Canada the first G7 country to see a rate hike. However, the tone of the accompanying statement suggests that this is... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Big picture still dominated by fiscal challenges Despite the turmoil in financial markets, the near-term outlook for the world economy is brighter than a few months ago. Nonetheless, a seemingly impressive rebound in 2010 is likely to give way to... 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK election ushers in the Great Squeeze Tomorrow’s general election will mark the beginning of a new and difficult phase for the UK economy. Get ready for the Great Squeeze. 5th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade still on the mend Global merchandise trade climbed again in February. The improvement should continue but world trade growth will probably slow next year. 27th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank of Canada signals imminent rate hike The Bank of Canada (BoC) this morning signalled clearly that it will begin hiking its key overnight interest rate at the next policy meeting in early June. We expect that rate to climb from 0.25% now... 20th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK election won’t transform the economic outlook The result of the UK general election could have short-term effects on sterling asset markets, but it won’t transform the economic outlook. Whatever the outcome, the next five years will be... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Recovery in world trade losing steam Today’s CPB Trade Monitor shows that global trade slipped back in January. The weakness should be short-lived but the recovery from now on will be slow and a hard slog. We believe that GDP growth in... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world heading for the wrong sort of bank levy? 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about tightening in China? 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
