Global Economics Update Market falls deepen economic risks The recent sharp falls in financial markets have vindicated our bold expectations for equity markets and bond yields. While we are not minded significantly to redraw our forecasts at this point, there... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth continued to slow in July Today’s batch of purchasing managers’ surveys paints a very gloomy picture. Overall, the data are further evidence that the slowdown in global growth is both sharp and broad-based, and suggest not... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have oil prices fallen enough to fuel a global recovery? The recent fall in oil prices should help to stabilise global growth in the coming months. But prices would need to drop significantly more to offset other headwinds that will pick up further in 2012... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we fear the fall-out from Greece? We continue to think that the markets are complacent about the potential implications of the crisis in Greece both for the rest of the euro-zone and the global economy as a whole. Greece still has the... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far is the slowdown due to supply chain problems? The disruption to Japanese supply chains following the 11th March earthquake has had a big impact on global vehicle production, a drag which is likely to fade over the coming months. But this only... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growth at eight month low The global manufacturing PMI fell sharply in May and is now at its lowest level since September 2010. This confirms that economic growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, and that industrial... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging market inflation close to peaking Inflation will continue to edge higher in most emerging markets over the coming months but should peak by Q4. Indeed, in some countries (notably China) it may already have done so. Accordingly, while... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting inflation? China’s struggle with rising prices is reverberating around the world. Domestic inflation is the highest it has been in nearly three years. Wages are increasing at a double-digit annual pace. No... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMIs for April show steady growth Purchasing managers’ surveys confirm that global manufacturing growth continued steadily in April, although the pace of growth appears to have slowed slightly in developed countries. They also show... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where and why we differ from the pack The attached note highlights the differences between our latest forecasts and those of the IMF, both published yesterday, and the most recent consensus forecasts, taken from the Consensus Economics... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does China's trade rebalancing mean for the world? The recent decline in China’s trade surplus is positive for global growth but it will rapidly reverse if commodity prices fall. Concerns that reduced currency intervention by China will push up... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No rush to follow the ECB The ECB’s widely anticipated decision to raise rates for the euro-zone today does not make it more likely that monetary policy will be tightened in other major advanced economies any time soon. 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.) March’s PMI data show that despite the political turmoil elsewhere in the region, the UAE’s non-oil private sector’s recovery is gaining momentum. 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about global supply chains? Since the earthquake struck on 11 th March, there have been many warnings that massive economic disruption in Japan will be transmitted equally around the world through global supply chains . In our... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade makes strong start to 2011 The latest data show that world trade grew strongly in January and that emerging markets continue to outperform advanced economies in this respect. This is consistent with the evidence from purchasing... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
