Global Economics Update Could SDRs challenge the dollar? When G20 Finance Ministers hold their first meeting of the year this weekend, one of the issues on the agenda will be reform of the International Monetary System, including a proposal to promote the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does the Tunisian crisis mean for the Middle East? Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Food or energy - which is the greatest inflation threat? The upward pressure on inflation this year from the recent surge in the cost of agricultural commodities will be much greater than that from the pick-up in oil prices. Fortunately from this... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What will 2011 hold for emerging markets? We expect growth in emerging economies to stay strong in 2011 and, generally speaking, the major challenge facing policymakers will be to ensure that inflation remains contained and that capital... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bah, humbug! Recovery set to disappoint The additional fiscal stimulus in the US and the ongoing credit boom in China have improved the near-term prospects for the global economy, but they do nothing to resolve the underlying imbalances... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The beginning of the end for global imbalances? One of the biggest risks facing the world economy is a lurch towards protectionism, culminating in a trade war between the US and China that would threaten to spill over to other countries. We expect... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the global recovery back on track? A run of improving data from the US, Europe and Emerging Asia (especially China) has raised hopes that global growth is accelerating again after a temporary slowdown over the summer. Earlier fears of... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Limited help for commodities from China The Chinese economy appears to be heading for a soft landing, but any support for global commodity prices is likely to be short-lived. 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the latest global inflation scare justified? The markets have swung too far from worrying about deflation towards worrying about inflation. To be sure, inflation will be higher than otherwise over the next few months as a result of the recent... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: new words, same old story The G20 Summit was always likely to be an exercise in damage limitation and in that respect it successfully papered over the many cracks between the positions of participants, at least for a few hours... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the markets running ahead of themselves? Asset prices of all types have surged following the announcement of additional QE from the US Fed, raising concerns about bubbles. The focus of these concerns has typically been on financial markets... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade recovery to weaken in 2011-12 The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows global trade picked up in August, but that the pace of recovery has already slowed sharply this year. We believe trade growth will ease further in coming months and... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we on the cusp of a currency war? Last night Brazil’s Finance Minister reportedly warned of a global “currency war”. We think direct currency intervention by policymakers in the major western developed economies at least is very... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
