Global Economics Update Growing divergence between US and euro-zone manufacturing November’s purchasing managers’ surveys suggest the euro-zone is sinking into an even deeper recession even while the US manufacturing sector has strengthened. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the IMF save the euro? Faced with the potential for a systemic financial crisis, the G20 group of leading nations may eventually agree a big increase in resources for the IMF. However, even if they do so, we doubt whether... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower commodity prices rescue the world economy? We are forecasting some pretty substantial falls in commodity prices over the next few years, which should provide some support for global growth. However, the experience of 2008 and 2009 shows that... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Kicking the Cannes down the road As expected, the G20 summit concluded today without agreeing anything of substance. Euro-zone leaders were effectively told to get their own house in order, something they have conspicuously failed to... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Kicking the Cannes down the road As expected, the G20 summit concluded today without agreeing anything of substance. Euro-zone leaders were effectively told to get their own house in order, something they have conspicuously failed to... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing weak even before euro crisis deepened October’s manufacturing surveys suggest Europe was slipping into recession even before the latest twist in the euro-zone crisis, while the rest of the world experienced low but positive growth. As the... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 achieve anything in Cannes? The G20 leaders’ summit this week will be an exercise in damage limitation. The agenda has been completely over-taken by the euro crisis, where there is no agreement on the role non-euro-zone... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world slipping back into recession? September’s purchasing managers’ surveys support our view that, for now, the world economy is slowing, but not heading for an outright recession. But advanced economies, particularly the eurozone, are... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we any closer to a Tobin tax? The widespread adoption of new Tobin-style levies on financial transactions remains unlikely, despite the latest endorsement from EC President Barroso today. Nonetheless, there is growing... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How serious is the global downturn? The latest purchasing managers’ surveys suggest global economic activity remained very sluggish in August. Although the figures do not point to an outright fall in world GDP, they are consistent with... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the risks of a double dip? The major Western economies are in dire need of some good news soon to prevent a renewed slide into recession. The best hope is probably a further fall in oil prices and a sustained decline in long... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world? Emerging markets should continue to grow rapidly over the next few years but, in contrast to the view of most commentators, we doubt that this will be of much benefit to the developed world. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers may be increasingly impotent The recent slump in equity prices is not necessarily a forerunner of a collapse in economic activity. However, the impact of previous episodes of asset price weakness has typically been mitigated by a... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disaster The news that S&P finally pulled the trigger by cutting America's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ will surely rock the financial markets when they open on Monday. But any spike in Treasury... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
