Global Economics Update Emerging market inflation close to peaking Inflation will continue to edge higher in most emerging markets over the coming months but should peak by Q4. Indeed, in some countries (notably China) it may already have done so. Accordingly, while... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting inflation? China’s struggle with rising prices is reverberating around the world. Domestic inflation is the highest it has been in nearly three years. Wages are increasing at a double-digit annual pace. No... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing PMIs for April show steady growth Purchasing managers’ surveys confirm that global manufacturing growth continued steadily in April, although the pace of growth appears to have slowed slightly in developed countries. They also show... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where and why we differ from the pack The attached note highlights the differences between our latest forecasts and those of the IMF, both published yesterday, and the most recent consensus forecasts, taken from the Consensus Economics... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What does China's trade rebalancing mean for the world? The recent decline in China’s trade surplus is positive for global growth but it will rapidly reverse if commodity prices fall. Concerns that reduced currency intervention by China will push up... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No rush to follow the ECB The ECB’s widely anticipated decision to raise rates for the euro-zone today does not make it more likely that monetary policy will be tightened in other major advanced economies any time soon. 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Mar.) March’s PMI data show that despite the political turmoil elsewhere in the region, the UAE’s non-oil private sector’s recovery is gaining momentum. 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about global supply chains? Since the earthquake struck on 11 th March, there have been many warnings that massive economic disruption in Japan will be transmitted equally around the world through global supply chains . In our... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade makes strong start to 2011 The latest data show that world trade grew strongly in January and that emerging markets continue to outperform advanced economies in this respect. This is consistent with the evidence from purchasing... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Natural disasters vs. financial shocks The economic costs of natural disasters, although nowhere near as important as the loss of life, are typically much less than those of major financial shocks. A discussion of why this is the case... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will Japan's nuclear crisis affect world energy markets? Once the immediate uncertainty clears, Japan’s nuclear crisis is likely to have only a limited impact on global energy markets. The events in Fukushima will raise concerns about costs and security... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global recovery strong for now, but set to slow The latest leading indicators reveal plenty of momentum behind the recovery on both sides of the Atlantic. However, we still expect global growth to slow in the second half of the year and into 2012... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How does this oil price spike compare with history? The current spike in oil prices has inevitably led to comparisons with other episodes when prices have surged over a relatively short period. The last five such episodes were all followed by global... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil spike alone unlikely to cause a global recession The turmoil in the Middle East has prompted a chorus of warnings that the world economy could be dragged back into recession if the price of oil continues to climb. We were already expecting global... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is gold heading for a replay of 1980? One obvious beneficiary of the continuing turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is the price of gold, which has again popped above $1,400 per oz. Indeed, there are plenty of parallels with the... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 struggles to find common ground on imbalances This weekend’s meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors appears to have achieved as little as expected. The most substantive decision was to agree a list of indicators which will be... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
