Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world slipping back into recession? September’s purchasing managers’ surveys support our view that, for now, the world economy is slowing, but not heading for an outright recession. But advanced economies, particularly the eurozone, are... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we any closer to a Tobin tax? The widespread adoption of new Tobin-style levies on financial transactions remains unlikely, despite the latest endorsement from EC President Barroso today. Nonetheless, there is growing... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How serious is the global downturn? The latest purchasing managers’ surveys suggest global economic activity remained very sluggish in August. Although the figures do not point to an outright fall in world GDP, they are consistent with... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the risks of a double dip? The major Western economies are in dire need of some good news soon to prevent a renewed slide into recession. The best hope is probably a further fall in oil prices and a sustained decline in long... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can emerging markets rescue the rest of the world? Emerging markets should continue to grow rapidly over the next few years but, in contrast to the view of most commentators, we doubt that this will be of much benefit to the developed world. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Policymakers may be increasingly impotent The recent slump in equity prices is not necessarily a forerunner of a collapse in economic activity. However, the impact of previous episodes of asset price weakness has typically been mitigated by a... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Are emerging markets immune? Despite benefiting from generally better fundamentals, no emerging market (EM) is immune from the deepening problems in the US and Europe. Growth everywhere is likely to slow over the next year and... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Loss of US AAA rating shouldn't be a complete disaster The news that S&P finally pulled the trigger by cutting America's long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ will surely rock the financial markets when they open on Monday. But any spike in Treasury... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Market falls deepen economic risks The recent sharp falls in financial markets have vindicated our bold expectations for equity markets and bond yields. While we are not minded significantly to redraw our forecasts at this point, there... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth continued to slow in July Today’s batch of purchasing managers’ surveys paints a very gloomy picture. Overall, the data are further evidence that the slowdown in global growth is both sharp and broad-based, and suggest not... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have oil prices fallen enough to fuel a global recovery? The recent fall in oil prices should help to stabilise global growth in the coming months. But prices would need to drop significantly more to offset other headwinds that will pick up further in 2012... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we fear the fall-out from Greece? We continue to think that the markets are complacent about the potential implications of the crisis in Greece both for the rest of the euro-zone and the global economy as a whole. Greece still has the... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How far is the slowdown due to supply chain problems? The disruption to Japanese supply chains following the 11th March earthquake has had a big impact on global vehicle production, a drag which is likely to fade over the coming months. But this only... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growth at eight month low The global manufacturing PMI fell sharply in May and is now at its lowest level since September 2010. This confirms that economic growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, and that industrial... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
