Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Feb.) Recent data underline that, other than in the US, very loose monetary policy is still not translating into faster credit growth. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Talk of currency wars to dominate G20 meeting Next week’s G20 gathering in Moscow will be overshadowed by talk of currency wars. But in our view, competitive exchange rate devaluations do not pose a significant threat to the global recovery. 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will weak consumer confidence hold back the recovery? Financial markets and many businesses have become more optimistic about the global economic outlook, but consumer confidence has typically remained weak. We expect households in the US and Europe in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys point to positive start to the year Preliminary survey data for January suggest the recovery in Chinese manufacturing is continuing and activity is picking up in the US. They also suggest the euro-zone recession may be easing, for now... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the New Year optimism about the economy justified? 2013 has begun with more optimism about prospects for the global economy. The latest survey evidence suggests many countries ended 2012 with greater momentum than they had a few months earlier, but we... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks going soft on inflation? Recent proposed changes to the monetary policy framework in several countries may signal slightly greater tolerance for inflation. But they do not mean the authorities are relaxing their grip on price... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are high corporate cash balances constraining investment? Some commentators argue that the recent build-up of non-financial corporations’ liquid assets in many countries is impeding business investment. However, the rise in cash balances dates back a couple... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global PMI improves but recovery weak and uneven The global manufacturing PMI rose in November as conditions improved in China and the rate of contraction slowed in much of Europe. But the latest reading still points to weak global growth, large... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World growth picked up a bit in Q3, but is still low World GDP recovered a bit in Q3 after a very weak second quarter. Looking forward, growth is set to strengthen a little in China and remain steady in the US. But this should be offset by continued... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to continued weakness in Q4 Business surveys for October suggest the global recovery began the fourth quarter at the same subdued pace it recorded in the summer. They also suggest that the US and euro-zone economies continued to... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risks of global food price shock continue to recede The jump in grains prices due to the exceptionally hot summer in the US still feeds headlines warning of another global food price shock similar to that in 2007-08. More recently, the spectre of... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the US shrug off a euro-zone recession? We expect the euro-zone to experience a deep recession next year but the US to grow steadily, reflecting the region-specific nature of the crisis in Europe, improving fundamentals in the US and the... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No end in sight for global austerity Whether or not you believe the IMF’s new estimates of the fiscal multiplier, budget cuts are due to intensify in advanced economies next year and will last longer than many had expected. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tokyo gatherings unlikely to amount to much Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 meet tomorrow in Tokyo ahead of the annual gathering of the IMF and the World Bank there, which concludes on Sunday. Although these meetings can very... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF still too optimistic about global recovery in 2013 The IMF has reduced its projection for global growth this year yet again, and is now getting close to the 3% forecast which we have stuck to since January. However, while the IMF has also reduced its... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
