Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of global food price inflation unjustified Fears that the recent jump in some agricultural prices will lead to an upturn in world inflation are wide of the mark. Overall, agricultural prices have barely changed this year and are still much... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a country ever lose money by lending to the IMF? While there may be no such thing as a risk-free loan, lending to the IMF is probably as close as it gets. Despite the IMF’s increasing exposure to the euro-zone, its preferred creditor status and... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 inching towards more resources for IMF At their meeting later this week, G20 finance ministers are likely to focus on the risks to recovery posed by high oil prices and the euro-zone. Of these, the euro-zone crisis remains the most... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global PMI suggests manufacturing recovery lacklustre Purchasing managers’ surveys for March suggest the recovery in global manufacturing may be faltering and remains heavily dependent on growth in the US. 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global growth? Financial markets have staged an impressive rally since late-2011 but world growth has probably not yet accelerated. Looking forward, we expect a gradual recovery in most major economies during the... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zone Credit growth and lending conditions are improving gradually in the US but are still extremely weak in the euro-zone. This divergence looks likely to continue or widen in the coming months... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US economy to pull further ahead of euro-zone The divergence between the performances of the US and the euro-zone economies looks set to widen even further than we had previously expected this year and next. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Commodity price moves do not herald a surge in inflation The recent strength of oil prices means that headline inflation may not decline as quickly as it would otherwise have done, but inflation in energy costs is still set to fall. What’s more, while oil... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing recovery fading? Purchasing managers’ surveys for February suggest that, although activity has recovered from late- 2011, the global manufacturing recovery may be losing momentum already 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much will fiscal austerity constrain the recovery? Governments in most advanced economies have been tightening fiscal policy since 2010 and will continue to do so this year. Our best guess is that growth in 2012 will consequently be around 0.5... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from rising oil prices? Oil prices are still below the levels that would represent a serious threat to the global economic recovery. But even now Europe is significantly more vulnerable than the US, despite the higher... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global trade slowed last year, prospects poor for 2012 World trade growth slowed in 2011 as economic activity faltered. There was a slight pick-up in the last quarter, which looks set to continue early this year, but we think trade is likely to remain... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is this recovery the real deal? The advanced economies have started the year strongly, led by the US, but the recovery is not secure. Growth could still be derailed by fiscal policy tightening, ongoing debt deleveraging, further... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could a Greek default be another Lehman's moment? The global fall-out from a long-anticipated Greek government default alone should be small and manageable, even if it takes the form of a “disorderly” default without the agreement of private... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
