Global Economics Update May’s ‘flash’ PMIs provide little cheer Preliminary PMIs for May, published by Markit today, suggest that global growth remains subdued. In particular, Chinese manufacturing activity may have slowed further, and the recession in the euro... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (May) Advanced economies remain awash with liquidity. The Japanese monetary base has been rising steeply for several months, even before the Bank of Japan’s policy shift, announced on 4th April. 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth picked up in Q1, but outlook subdued World GDP growth picked up in the first quarter, after a very weak end to 2012. But it looks unlikely to accelerate further given the extended euro-zone recession and slowdown in emerging economies. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Benign inflation outlook supports case for loose policy Weak commodity prices and a faltering global recovery suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain very low for the foreseeable future. This will support the case for continued... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing prospects still poor April’s business surveys suggest that global growth is faltering again. With continued fiscal austerity only partly offset by looser monetary policy, we doubt that it will accelerate in the coming... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Apr.) Japan’s adoption of a far more aggressive monetary policy stance early this month has left the ECB looking increasingly out of step with its peers. 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slowdown in China not a disaster for global economy Other than for some commodity exporters, the negative impact of lower growth in China on activity elsewhere should be fairly limited. What’s more, there are some offsetting positives including lower... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity to undermine GDP regardless of Reinhart/Rogoff The exposure of errors in Reinhart and Rogoff’s paper on debt and growth does not affect our view that fiscal austerity will be a major drag on growth for some years to come, particularly in advanced... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in grain prices to help keep global inflation subdued The recent declines in the prices of US grains and oilseeds have received much less media attention than the surge last summer, but they have now reversed most of those gains. Admittedly, the prices... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing still struggling The latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing activity remained fairly weak in March, while that the gulf between US and other advanced economies remains huge. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Mar.) The paths of narrow money in the US and euro-zone diverged further over the past few weeks. The Fed maintained the pace of its assets purchases. But in the eurozone, commercial banks continued... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade still sluggish Figures published today show a pick-up in world trade in January. But the growth rate remains slow by pre-crisis standards, and in many areas trade is still contracting. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Divergence between US and euro-zone widens further Preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys for March indicate that the recession in the euro-zone has deepened once more, while the recovery in the US has strengthened. There was a small rise in China’s... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Much lower oil prices needed for strong recovery The $10 decline in the price of a barrel of Brent since early February reflects the faltering in the world economy and, most recently, the fresh worries about the euro-zone triggered by the crisis in... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Recovery falters, except in the US The latest business surveys suggest the pick-up in activity early this year has softened almost everywhere, except the US, as the PMIs dropped back in most advanced and emerging economies in February. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in G7 GDP in Q4 was the largest for four years Today’s disappointing GDP figures published by the euro-zone and Japan for the fourth quarter of 2012 underline that, even if activity has picked up at the start of this year, it has done so from a... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
