Global Economics Update US debt crisis should not stifle global recovery If the political fight over the US debt ceiling goes to the wire, or beyond, there will be negative implications for the US economy. But the impact on the rest of the world should be fairly small. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal tightening still not over, but the worst may have passed Clearly, the fiscal issues dominating the news at present are the US government shutdown and threat of default. We discuss the recent trends in the US and other advanced economies on pages 3- 4. But... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global outlook has improved, despite US fiscal impasse Headlines from the IMF meetings in Washington this week will be dominated by warnings of theconsequences of the US government defaulting on its debts and the US central bank exiting prematurelyfrom QE... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US default would be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic The markets are right to be concerned about the wider implications if the US Federal government is unable to service its debts. This would be uncharted territory and no-one can be sure exactly how... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up slightly in September Final business surveys for September, published by Markit this week, suggest that global manufacturinggrowth may have accelerated a bit relative to August. But steady global growth masks significant... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary base to rise further in US and Japan Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are likely to continue with quantitative easing for many months to come, even after the Fed has begun scaling back its monthly asset purchases. With... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the fiscal impact of higher bond yields? On their own, the increases in government bond yields since May do not pose a significant threat to the public finances of most advanced economies. Higher yields in the secondary market take a long... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing recovery continues in September Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that the economic recoveries in China and the euro-zone gained more momentum in September. The survey for the US dipped a bit, but this does not... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Taylor rule imply for global monetary policy? Applying a simple Taylor rule to our economic forecasts suggests that the Federal Reserve is the only major central bank which should tighten monetary policy (or scale back its stimulus) before 2016... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How global is the business cycle? Business cycles in advanced economies have been exceptionally closely aligned in recent years because of the global financial crisis, but they are likely to become less so in future. Although a global... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment to fall slowly as global economy recovers Although the global economy appears to be strengthening, we think the unemployment rate in most advanced countries is likely to fall only gradually. This is because there is a lot of scope for a... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up further, but faces headwinds Business surveys point to a pick-up in global manufacturing activity in August. But while the recovery may gain further momentum in the coming months, it faces several headwinds, notably the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed poised to begin tapering Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies have remained exceptionally loose even as the Federal Reserve prepares to scale back QE3. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there any point in the G20? Investors have long ago learnt to expect little of substance to emerge from the formal meetings of G20 leaders and finance ministers. The group is too large and disparate to function as an effective... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big are the global risks from Syria? The recent events in Syria are, above all, a human tragedy, but it falls on us to address the wider market and economic implications too. A further rise in oil prices would threaten to turn a... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sell-off in emerging markets should have little global impact The recent sell-off in emerging market assets should have limited impact on the global economy. Growth in the emerging world itself may not decelerate much further than it has done already; and... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
