Global Economics Update Austerity to undermine GDP regardless of Reinhart/Rogoff The exposure of errors in Reinhart and Rogoff’s paper on debt and growth does not affect our view that fiscal austerity will be a major drag on growth for some years to come, particularly in advanced... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in grain prices to help keep global inflation subdued The recent declines in the prices of US grains and oilseeds have received much less media attention than the surge last summer, but they have now reversed most of those gains. Admittedly, the prices... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing still struggling The latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing activity remained fairly weak in March, while that the gulf between US and other advanced economies remains huge. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Mar.) The paths of narrow money in the US and euro-zone diverged further over the past few weeks. The Fed maintained the pace of its assets purchases. But in the eurozone, commercial banks continued... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade still sluggish Figures published today show a pick-up in world trade in January. But the growth rate remains slow by pre-crisis standards, and in many areas trade is still contracting. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Divergence between US and euro-zone widens further Preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys for March indicate that the recession in the euro-zone has deepened once more, while the recovery in the US has strengthened. There was a small rise in China’s... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Much lower oil prices needed for strong recovery The $10 decline in the price of a barrel of Brent since early February reflects the faltering in the world economy and, most recently, the fresh worries about the euro-zone triggered by the crisis in... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Recovery falters, except in the US The latest business surveys suggest the pick-up in activity early this year has softened almost everywhere, except the US, as the PMIs dropped back in most advanced and emerging economies in February. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in G7 GDP in Q4 was the largest for four years Today’s disappointing GDP figures published by the euro-zone and Japan for the fourth quarter of 2012 underline that, even if activity has picked up at the start of this year, it has done so from a... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Feb.) Recent data underline that, other than in the US, very loose monetary policy is still not translating into faster credit growth. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Talk of currency wars to dominate G20 meeting Next week’s G20 gathering in Moscow will be overshadowed by talk of currency wars. But in our view, competitive exchange rate devaluations do not pose a significant threat to the global recovery. 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will weak consumer confidence hold back the recovery? Financial markets and many businesses have become more optimistic about the global economic outlook, but consumer confidence has typically remained weak. We expect households in the US and Europe in... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys point to positive start to the year Preliminary survey data for January suggest the recovery in Chinese manufacturing is continuing and activity is picking up in the US. They also suggest the euro-zone recession may be easing, for now... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the New Year optimism about the economy justified? 2013 has begun with more optimism about prospects for the global economy. The latest survey evidence suggests many countries ended 2012 with greater momentum than they had a few months earlier, but we... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks going soft on inflation? Recent proposed changes to the monetary policy framework in several countries may signal slightly greater tolerance for inflation. But they do not mean the authorities are relaxing their grip on price... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are high corporate cash balances constraining investment? Some commentators argue that the recent build-up of non-financial corporations’ liquid assets in many countries is impeding business investment. However, the rise in cash balances dates back a couple... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
