Global Economics Update G20 head for Moscow to talk about tapering The main talking point at this weekend’s gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors is sure to be the Fed’s plan to taper QE3. But despite the volatility which has hit their markets... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further rises in oil prices would undermine global growth The recent rise in oil prices is not large enough to be a significant drag on global growth, particularly given that Brent crude has increased much less than WTI. However, if prices rise much further... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from transatlantic trade talks Negotiations between the US and EU on a transatlantic trade and investment agreement begin today. In the long run, an agreement could provide a significant boost to world trade and economic activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing treads water in June The latest set of PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions in Europe and Japan but a deterioration in China, leaving global growth little changed overall. 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will higher bond yields stall the global recovery? The recent sharp rise in government bond yields in the developed world has raised fears that the global economic recovery could be derailed by the deterioration in financial conditions. We think these... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still very loose Government and corporate bond yields in most advanced economies increased sharply in the past few weeks in response to statements by the Fed which suggested that it will scale back its asset purchases... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further weakness in China, but some respite for euro-zone The so-called “flash” PMIs for the US, euro-zone and China – economies which together account for nearly half of world GDP – give us an early indication of how the global economy is performing in June... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global business conditions pick up slightly Purchasing managers’ surveys for May suggest that conditions improved in Japan and the UK and that the deterioration in the euro-zone is not as steep as it was a few months ago. But these improvements... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Wealth effects” will have little impact on global consumption The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update May’s ‘flash’ PMIs provide little cheer Preliminary PMIs for May, published by Markit today, suggest that global growth remains subdued. In particular, Chinese manufacturing activity may have slowed further, and the recession in the euro... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (May) Advanced economies remain awash with liquidity. The Japanese monetary base has been rising steeply for several months, even before the Bank of Japan’s policy shift, announced on 4th April. 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth picked up in Q1, but outlook subdued World GDP growth picked up in the first quarter, after a very weak end to 2012. But it looks unlikely to accelerate further given the extended euro-zone recession and slowdown in emerging economies. 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Benign inflation outlook supports case for loose policy Weak commodity prices and a faltering global recovery suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain very low for the foreseeable future. This will support the case for continued... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing prospects still poor April’s business surveys suggest that global growth is faltering again. With continued fiscal austerity only partly offset by looser monetary policy, we doubt that it will accelerate in the coming... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Apr.) Japan’s adoption of a far more aggressive monetary policy stance early this month has left the ECB looking increasingly out of step with its peers. 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slowdown in China not a disaster for global economy Other than for some commodity exporters, the negative impact of lower growth in China on activity elsewhere should be fairly limited. What’s more, there are some offsetting positives including lower... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
