Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates gradually recovering Recent trends in corporate credit growth underline the diverging fortunes of advanced economies. In the US, bank lending is expanding at a decent pace, albeit more slowly than it was in 2012, and even... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy still has plenty of spare capacity Some commentators have suggested that the global business cycle is now quite advanced and that markets should expect much tighter monetary policy as soon as 2015. We disagree. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy enters 2014 with fairly strong momentum Business surveys for December suggest that the world economy continued to grow at a solid pace at the end of 2013. We expect this to be sustained throughout most of this year. However, as there is... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fiscal austerity to continue but will be less severe next year Austerity will be a drag on growth in advanced economies next year, but the squeeze should be smaller than this year. Moreover, the risks of further fiscal tightening have fallen since US politicians... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update December business surveys suggest growth levelling off The world economy has gained momentum during the past twelve months, but the latest evidence, including several business surveys published today, suggests that it may no longer be accelerating. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update "Historic" WTO agreement is not such a big deal The deal signed in Bali this weekend was reached only after the bulk of the Doha trade agenda was dropped from the negotiations. We doubt that it will make much difference to world trade volumes and... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary expansion continues Our measure of the aggregate monetary base in advanced economies has expanded rapidly during the past few months as both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have pressed on with their asset... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing strengthened in November Business surveys published today suggest that the manufacturing recovery strengthened further in November, led by the US, UK and Japan. The euro-zone, however, is largely missing out, and there are... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Business surveys highlight uneven pace of growth Although the global recovery seems to be gradually gaining momentum, led by faster growth in the US, preliminary business surveys for November underline how uneven growth is. In particular, China’s... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Pace of further globalisation likely to remain sluggish Globalisation appears to have stalled since 2008, even as the world economy has recovered. This suggests that structural changes have reduced the incentives for closer integration. With little... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth rose in Q3, but recovery still uneven We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter, mainly thanks to a summer rebound in China and faster growth in the US and UK. Looking ahead, global growth may slow a bit as... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reform of international monetary system: off the agenda? Many commentators have attributed the sequence of crises in emerging markets since the 1980s and the global financial crisis of 2008/09 at least partly to shortcomings of the international monetary... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed still set to hike before the BoE, but neither in any hurry Despite the recent improvement in the UK labour market, the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to lag behind the US Fed in raising interest rates. Over time, this should put renewed downward pressure on... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation? We do not think the world as a whole is heading for a period of deflation. However, peripheral eurozone countries may experience an extended period of falling, or at best stable, prices. We also... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taper delay keeps monetary conditions loose With the Fed likely to keep the monetary taps flowing for even longer than previously expected, the world will be awash with liquidity for a long time to come. There are tentative signs that this is... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Recovery in global manufacturing falters in October Disappointing preliminary business surveys for October suggest that the improvement in business conditions seen over the past few months may be beginning to tail off. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
