Global Economics Update Manufacturing recovery continues in September Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, suggest that the economic recoveries in China and the euro-zone gained more momentum in September. The survey for the US dipped a bit, but this does not... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Taylor rule imply for global monetary policy? Applying a simple Taylor rule to our economic forecasts suggests that the Federal Reserve is the only major central bank which should tighten monetary policy (or scale back its stimulus) before 2016... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How global is the business cycle? Business cycles in advanced economies have been exceptionally closely aligned in recent years because of the global financial crisis, but they are likely to become less so in future. Although a global... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment to fall slowly as global economy recovers Although the global economy appears to be strengthening, we think the unemployment rate in most advanced countries is likely to fall only gradually. This is because there is a lot of scope for a... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing picks up further, but faces headwinds Business surveys point to a pick-up in global manufacturing activity in August. But while the recovery may gain further momentum in the coming months, it faces several headwinds, notably the... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed poised to begin tapering Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies have remained exceptionally loose even as the Federal Reserve prepares to scale back QE3. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there any point in the G20? Investors have long ago learnt to expect little of substance to emerge from the formal meetings of G20 leaders and finance ministers. The group is too large and disparate to function as an effective... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big are the global risks from Syria? The recent events in Syria are, above all, a human tragedy, but it falls on us to address the wider market and economic implications too. A further rise in oil prices would threaten to turn a... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sell-off in emerging markets should have little global impact The recent sell-off in emerging market assets should have limited impact on the global economy. Growth in the emerging world itself may not decelerate much further than it has done already; and... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Stable outlook for inflation leaves central banks with a free hand The continued high level of spare capacity and absence of big commodity price movements suggest that inflation in advanced economies is likely to remain low and stable in the coming months. This... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update End of euro-zone recession lifts global growth This week’s GDP releases confirm that global growth was stronger in Q2 than in Q1. However, growth at current rates will leave a lot of spare capacity and daunting debt burdens in many countries. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging economies still the main source of growth Changes in the rates of growth of emerging and advanced economies have prompted some commentators to suggest that advanced economies may soon return to being the main engine of global growth. But even... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing recovery remains uneven Preliminary manufacturing PMIs for July, released by Markit today, reveal that the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing is offsetting better news from the euro-zone, where activity may finally be... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity not over yet Over the past twelve months or so, policy-makers have sounded more pragmatic about the need for further fiscal austerity. However, the reduction in the structural budget deficit in advanced economies... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of monetary tightening are premature Monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose even after the Fed ends its asset purchases under QE3. Credit growth in the US is slowing, but remains... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
