Global Economics Update How much should we worry about the weather? Extreme weather conditions have made the economic outlook in many countries less clear in recent months. However, experience suggests that the impact on GDP and inflation will probably turn out to be... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20: “Abenomics” goes global? The G20’s bold plan to boost their collective GDP by more than 2% over the next five years contains many of the elements of the policies, collectively known as “Abenomics”, adopted by PM Abe’s... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates still expanding rapidly The monetary base in advanced economies has continued expanding in recent weeks, largely due to the asset purchase programmes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan. Indeed, the aggregate monetary base of... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing surveys point to slower growth, US excepted Preliminary business surveys for February indicate that manufacturing activity slowed further in China and that the recovery in the euro-zone has faltered. But the news from the US is more reassuring. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Does the world need more policy coordination? This weekend’s G20 meeting may well see calls for US policy-makers in particular to take more account of the global fallout from their actions, but we expect such demands to continue to fall on deaf... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 talking shop moves to Sydney Policy-makers from some emerging economies may air their grievances about US monetary policy at next week’s G20 gathering, but there is no consensus among them on what the Fed should be doing. More... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Revamped forward guidance to help keep rates low The decisions of the Fed and the Bank of England to place less emphasis on the unemployment rate as a guide to future policy should give them more wriggle room to keep interest rates low. The changes... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in equity prices not enough to dent global growth The drop in global equity prices since the beginning of the year should have little effect on growth. It reverses only part of the increase in prices over the past two years. Moreover, the steepest... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will deflation be the next stage of the crisis? The IMF’s Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, recently suggested that deflation is still a major risk for the world economy. Since her speech, there has been a sharp drop in equity prices... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing expansion continued in January Despite the slowdown in China and the instability in some other emerging markets, the latest business surveys suggest that global manufacturing output grew at a steady pace in January. 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How do the US and UK labour markets compare? The recent sharp falls in the unemployment rate in the US and particularly the UK have raised expectations that their central banks may soon be forced to tighten monetary policy in order to head off a... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM sell-off to have little impact on global economy The recent volatility in emerging markets may have a negative impact on some developing countries, but it should not prevent a gradual acceleration of growth in advanced economies. 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity easing, but unevenly The worst period of global fiscal austerity is finally passing and this should give a boost to growth in advanced economies, at least relative to 2013. But the benefits will vary between countries... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone recovery offset by slowdown in China Business surveys published today suggest that the euro-zone recovery gained momentum in January, while China's manufacturing slowdown has continued. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No sign that Japan is exporting deflation Fears that yen weakness will trigger a surge of cheap Japanese exports and hence raise the risks of deflation elsewhere have, so far at least, proved wide of the mark. In practice, Japan’s firms have... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will falling commodity prices trigger deflation? We expect ample supply to result in large falls in global oil prices in the next few years. At the same time, the prices of other key commodities, including industrial metals and agriculturals, are... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
