Global Economics Update PMIs show no hint of a rebound in industry yet The latest PMIs suggest that the decline in global manufacturing activity has further to run. At least weak activity is weighing on price pressures, which should lead to further falls in core goods... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade probably hasn’t reached its trough yet Global goods trade rose slightly in May, but timelier data point to a renewed fall in June. And as spending patterns continue to normalise away from goods towards services at the same time as higher... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Clear signs that services activity is now slowing July’s flash PMIs suggest that activity slowed further at the start of Q3. Industry remains the weak spot, but the outlook for the services sector has also deteriorated noticeably. And while this... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño risks concentrated in EMs The likelihood of an El Niño event in the second half of this year adds to upside risks to global inflation and downside risks to activity. For the advanced economies, higher prices of agricultural... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Comparing the Fed’s new FCI to our own The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand set to weigh on industry further The latest PMIs suggest that not only did global manufacturing activity contract at the end of Q2, but the outlook for the manufacturing sector also seems to have deteriorated further. At least the... 3rd July 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade resumes its decline World trade fell in April and timelier data point to a further fall in May, partly due to a sharp drop in Chinese exports which reversed all of their rebound from earlier this year. And weak demand... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Hawkish tone at Sintra forum, particularly in Europe Central bankers have struck a hawkish tone at the ECB’s forum in Sintra this week, suggesting that rates haven’t yet peaked and cuts are not on the cards for some time. But there were some interesting... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Growth slowing but services inflation still high June’s flash PMIs suggest that not only has activity in advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2, but the outlook has also deteriorated further. This is particularly true in the manufacturing sector... 23rd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Economic fracturing to continue despite thaw in relations A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear... 20th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the resilience of labour markets? The recent resilience of labour markets partly reflects a lag before higher interest rates feed through fully to economic activity. But employment has also been supported by the industry-led nature of... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Resilient interest sensitive activity indicators won’t last According to our proprietary interest rate-sensitive indicators, activity in advanced economies has so far proven remarkably resilient to higher interest rates. A lot of this has been due to a rebound... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak demand weighing on price pressures Although activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have improved somewhat in May, that was mainly due to stronger growth in some large emerging markets. The outlook for industry remains bleak... 1st June 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Rebound in trade in March likely to be short-lived Although world trade rebounded in March amid the reopening recovery in China, we don’t think this marks the beginning of a broader turnaround in global trade. In fact, timelier data point to renewed... 31st May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Strong auto sector rebound probably largely in the past The rebound in global auto production and sales over the past year has been partly responsible for the better-than-expected activity data over the past several months. And with auto sales in most... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
