Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Among the “flash” business surveys published today, the fall in China’s manufacturing PMI has, understandably, attracted the most headlines. However, surveys for the other major economies suggest that... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China and the SDR: fuss about nothing Reports that the IMF has decided not to add the renminbi to the SDR basket until September 2016 at the earliest miss two more important points. First, China’s currency may not be added to the basket... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the slump in commodity prices a good recession signal? At face value the plunge in commodity prices over the last year is consistent with a global recession as severe as that in 2008-09. However, this time it almost certainly is different. The latest... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of deflation still confined to euro-zone and Japan Fears of a period of widespread deflation look misplaced, in our view, despite the recent fall in oil prices and China’s devaluation. Domestic forces will continue to be the key drivers of inflation... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on the impact of China’s exchange rate shift China’s move to shore up the renminbi suggests that the exchange rate policy changes it announced earlier this week will have little lasting impact on the world economy. Nor will the small step... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Does the weakness in world trade signal a broader downturn? The recent run of weak trade data has raised fresh concerns about the health of the global economy. However, the fall in the value of trade over the past year mostly reflects lower commodity prices... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Renewed slide in oil prices not (yet) a game-changer The declines in the cost of crude oil since May have revived concerns about global growth and deflation risks. However, the falls mainly reflect positive supply-side developments and are also small... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) July’s final manufacturing PMIs suggest that the world economy began the third quarter on a weak note. However, we expect global growth to hold up fairly well over the rest of the year as China’s... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to stay loose despite looming Fed hikes Even though the US Fed is likely to begin raising interest rates in September, global monetary conditions are set to remain ultra-loose over the coming years as a number of other central banks ease... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys suggest that global growth weakened further in July, butwe do not think that the world economy is heading for another major downturn. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to sound the “all clear” on deflation Fears of a prolonged period of falling prices in advanced economies have eased over the past few months as both inflation and inflation expectations have rebounded. Nevertheless, the conditions under... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? In our view, the debate over whether Greek exit from the euro or the slump in China’s stock market poses the greater threat to the rest of the world is missing the point that neither actually has to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global imbalances? The fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the US dollar will cause global imbalances to widen over the coming years. China’s surplus could rise up the political agenda once more while the euro... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in Chinese equities not a big problem for world economy Beyond its impact on investor sentiment, which we expect to be temporary, the slump in China’s equity market is unlikely to have much effect on the global economy. Indeed, we doubt that it will even... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates expanding steadily Broad measures of the money supply are increasing at a decent pace in the major advanced economies, suggesting at face value that the global economic recovery remains on track. The biggest change over... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
