Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World to benefit from long period of “just right” oil prices Crude oil prices appear to be settling in a range of $60 to $70 per barrel, which we regard as ideal (a “Goldilocks” scenario) for the global economy. Prices are high enough to ease the pressure on... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions loose despite rise in yields Although both sovereign and corporate bond yields in advanced economies rose in early May, they remain low by past standards. And with most central banks likely to maintain ultra-loose policy this... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing surveys show steady growth in May Final manufacturing surveys for May, published by Markit today, provide some reassurance that global growth should continue at a respectable pace this year. Among the advanced economies, prospects... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth still set to pick up in Q2 Preliminary PMIs for May, which were published today, support our view that global growth is likely to pick up after a soft patch at the beginning of the year. We still think activity will rebound... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rebound in bond yields unlikely to undermine global growth We can all be caught up in the mood of the moment, but talk of a “rout” in bond markets is, at best, premature. Yields are still remarkably low by past standards. While they may rise further, notably... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending more? Consumers in advanced economies have so far opted to save, rather than spend, their oil windfall. However, strengthening labour markets, buoyant asset prices, and high consumer confidence all point to... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the rebound in oil prices a threat to the global recovery? Oil prices have recovered to levels that should still provide a major boost to consumers, while easing the pressure on producers. However, further increases could undermine the recovery in weaker... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Structural budget balances don’t tell the whole story In theory the structural budget balance, which takes account of whether an economy is running above or below its potential level, provides a useful summary of a government’s fiscal position. On this... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fears of an extended global slowdown look exaggerated The weakness of the US and China in Q1 and some softer data elsewhere have led to suggestions that a broad-based global slowdown is now underway. We think that is not the case. Growth has held up well... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions remain highly accommodative as the world’s major central banks have kept policy rates close to zero and some have continued with large scale asset purchases. Conditions in... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Disappointing start to Q2, but no disaster Business surveys released today suggest that the world’s four largest economies slowed in April. But global growth has not collapsed. Indeed, our flash global manufacturing PMI still points to a solid... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China will not stifle growth elsewhere China’s growth rate is set to slow a little further in the coming years. This will have a significant knock-on effect on some other emerging economies, but we think its overall impact on growth in the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How has investment fared since the crisis? One of the most disappointing features of advanced economies in recent years has been the weakness of investment. In part, this is because investment tends to mirror the performance of the economy as... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF: catching up with reality The IMF is making headlines with its forecast that the world economy faces a “new reality” of lower potential growth during the coming years. But arguably, it is the IMF which is catching up with... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wealth effects in euro-zone and Japan will be small Quantitative easing in the euro-zone and Japan has provided a big boost to equity markets which in turn should bolster household wealth. But barring a major recovery in the housing market, the impact... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
