Global Economics Update Money aggregates growing steadily Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative in most advanced economies, notwithstanding the rise in corporate bond yields since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, broad monetary aggregates are... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that activity in advanced economies picked up in October. Claims that the world economy is in the throes of a broad-based downturn are clearly... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil producers adjusting to new reality The collapse of oil prices since mid-2014 has exposed the huge variation in the public finances of the world’s major oil exporters. Poorly managed emerging economies such as Russia and Venezuela had... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Return to deflation should be brief Headline inflation fell below zero in a number of major economies in September, but we expect the latest bout of deflation to be short-lived. That said, the further drop in inflation expectations in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly is the world economy growing? We estimate that global GDP growth will slow to around 2½% this year, taking into account ourassessment of China’s actual growth rate. However, the world economy should recover in 2016 asactivity in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update TPP is potentially a “big deal” but only over the long term The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement which was announced today may not see the light of day for some years. Assuming, however, that it is eventually implemented, it should have large and... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators consistent with global recovery Many have argued that China’s attempts to prevent its currency from weakening conflict with its efforts to keep domestic monetary conditions loose. But China’s monetary indicators still point to a... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) September’s final manufacturing PMIs suggest that the global economy expanded at a moderate pace in Q3. Indeed, although Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.7 to 50.6 in September, it is... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today have added to concerns that China’s economy is slowing, but the latest activity data, which are more reliable, have been more encouraging. Meanwhile, growth... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are troubles in emerging markets a third leg of the global crisis? Many commentators, including the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, have suggested that the turmoil in emerging markets (EMs) over the last few months is just the latest phase of the global financial... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much would a slump in China affect global growth? In the unlikely event that China’s growth rate collapses in the coming years, global growth would decline sharply simply because China accounts for such a large share of the world economy. But the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will commodity exporters continue to weigh on global growth? Fears about the health of the world economy have centred on China, but the bulk of the slowdown over the past year has actually been due to weaker growth in commodity exporters. The outlook varies by... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should the G20 be so worried about global growth? The IMF’s call for central bankers to refrain from tightening policy may have fuelled fears that the world is on the brink of a major downturn. We think the picture is not so gloomy. Emerging... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Final manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that the pace of global growth has held up fairly well, despite weaker activity in China. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks really running out of ammunition? The recent panic in global markets has been reflected in a wave of commentary to the effect that monetary policy has lost its power. We disagree. Central banks’ track record on inflation in advanced... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy credit growth hits a six-year high The latest monetary data suggest that the pace of growth in the major advanced economies remains solid. Global monetary conditions are likely to remain very loose over the coming years, which in turn... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
