Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) July’s final manufacturing PMIs suggest that the world economy began the third quarter on a weak note. However, we expect global growth to hold up fairly well over the rest of the year as China’s... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Conditions to stay loose despite looming Fed hikes Even though the US Fed is likely to begin raising interest rates in September, global monetary conditions are set to remain ultra-loose over the coming years as a number of other central banks ease... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys suggest that global growth weakened further in July, butwe do not think that the world economy is heading for another major downturn. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to sound the “all clear” on deflation Fears of a prolonged period of falling prices in advanced economies have eased over the past few months as both inflation and inflation expectations have rebounded. Nevertheless, the conditions under... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? In our view, the debate over whether Greek exit from the euro or the slump in China’s stock market poses the greater threat to the rest of the world is missing the point that neither actually has to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global imbalances? The fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the US dollar will cause global imbalances to widen over the coming years. China’s surplus could rise up the political agenda once more while the euro... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in Chinese equities not a big problem for world economy Beyond its impact on investor sentiment, which we expect to be temporary, the slump in China’s equity market is unlikely to have much effect on the global economy. Indeed, we doubt that it will even... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates expanding steadily Broad measures of the money supply are increasing at a decent pace in the major advanced economies, suggesting at face value that the global economic recovery remains on track. The biggest change over... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update June business surveys point to steady Q2 growth Final manufacturing surveys for June, published by Markit today, do not alter our view that global growth recovered in Q2. Admittedly, the global manufacturing PMI edged back down to 51.0, but on past... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private consumption after a currency crisis Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic recoveries following a large devaluation have not always resulted from a surge in net exports. Instead, they have often been driven by rising consumption... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Unemployment outlook points to faster rate hikes in US than UK Having declined in lock-step with one another over the past three and a half years, we think the unemployment rate is likely fall more rapidly in the US than in the UK between now and the end of 2017... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth to recover, but remain uneven Preliminary business surveys for June still suggest that global growth will rebound following a weak start to the year. However, the recovery is set to remain uneven, with growth in the US (and UK)... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reviewing the lessons from past devaluations Devaluations have generally had a more positive impact on growth in economies which have a lot of spare capacity, where monetary conditions have been excessively tight and where a debt write-off is... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global financial conditions loose despite prospect of Fed hikes Yesterday’s FOMC statement and interest rate projections suggest that the US Fed is still on track to begin raising rates in September. Nevertheless, broader monetary conditions should remain highly... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
