Global Economics Update Global growth slowed further in Q4, but is set to recover We estimate that world GDP growth fell below 2% annualised in Q4 2015, its slowest pace in over three years. But growth should rebound to 3% or so this year, as China, Japan and the US regain some... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Baltic Dry Index a useful economic indicator? Another day, another record low for the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). However, while this measure of sea freight costs may be a helpful guide to the balance of supply and demand for certain commodities and... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Today’s Markit PMIs show manufacturing growth holding broadly steady in January, and provide no evidence of the collapse in economic activity that many seem to fear. 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the IMF’s latest forecasts The IMF today downgraded its forecasts for global growth this year and next, leaving them closer to our own. It also stressed that prospects for China have not deteriorated markedly in recent months... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still supportive Broad money and private sector credit have continued expanding steadily in recent months. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has been growing rapidly while in emerging economies it has slowed... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are we due a global recession? Suggestions that the global recovery is likely to run out of steam simply because the business cycle is now quite mature look wide of the mark. Indeed, the recoveries in most G7 economies are still in... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will lower oil prices affect monetary policy? Based on our new oil price forecasts we expect inflation in advanced economies to rise more gradually this year than previously anticipated. This will add to pressure for further policy loosening in... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the renminbi? In our view, China is likely to keep its currency broadly stable in trade-weighted terms in the coming months. However, if there were a large, across-the-board devaluation of the renminbi the fallout... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs for December, which were published today, suggest that momentum was slowing at the end of last year. The euro-zone gained a bit more momentum, but this was... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will consumers continue driving the recovery in 2016? Household consumption in advanced economies has risen more rapidly in 2015 than in any other year since the global financial crisis. We expect it to continue expanding steadily for the next year or... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of our key calls for 2016 and beyond Advanced economies are likely to continue their steady recovery during the coming year or two, albeit with the euro-zone and Japan still lagging well behind the US and UK. Tighter labour market... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Flash manufacturing PMIs for December show continued steady growth in the eurozone and Japan, but they also underline how much the US manufacturing sector is struggling. That said, we doubt that this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a major devaluation of the renminbi the next global shock? Late on Friday the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appeared to signal its intention to shift towards managing the renminbi against a currency basket rather than the US dollar. This has added to... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the global implications of the latest slide in oil prices? The latest slide in the price of crude oil is clearly unsettling the financial markets, but it should not materially affect the prospects for the global economy. Even if prices remain below $40 per... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five reasons not to panic about Fed “lift-off” We do not think that higher US interest rates will derail the global recovery next year. The Fed is only likely to tighten policy if the economy continues to do well. Other major central banks will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
