Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) September’s final manufacturing PMIs suggest that the global economy expanded at a moderate pace in Q3. Indeed, although Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.7 to 50.6 in September, it is... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Sep.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today have added to concerns that China’s economy is slowing, but the latest activity data, which are more reliable, have been more encouraging. Meanwhile, growth... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are troubles in emerging markets a third leg of the global crisis? Many commentators, including the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, have suggested that the turmoil in emerging markets (EMs) over the last few months is just the latest phase of the global financial... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much would a slump in China affect global growth? In the unlikely event that China’s growth rate collapses in the coming years, global growth would decline sharply simply because China accounts for such a large share of the world economy. But the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will commodity exporters continue to weigh on global growth? Fears about the health of the world economy have centred on China, but the bulk of the slowdown over the past year has actually been due to weaker growth in commodity exporters. The outlook varies by... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should the G20 be so worried about global growth? The IMF’s call for central bankers to refrain from tightening policy may have fuelled fears that the world is on the brink of a major downturn. We think the picture is not so gloomy. Emerging... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Final manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that the pace of global growth has held up fairly well, despite weaker activity in China. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks really running out of ammunition? The recent panic in global markets has been reflected in a wave of commentary to the effect that monetary policy has lost its power. We disagree. Central banks’ track record on inflation in advanced... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy credit growth hits a six-year high The latest monetary data suggest that the pace of growth in the major advanced economies remains solid. Global monetary conditions are likely to remain very loose over the coming years, which in turn... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Among the “flash” business surveys published today, the fall in China’s manufacturing PMI has, understandably, attracted the most headlines. However, surveys for the other major economies suggest that... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China and the SDR: fuss about nothing Reports that the IMF has decided not to add the renminbi to the SDR basket until September 2016 at the earliest miss two more important points. First, China’s currency may not be added to the basket... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the slump in commodity prices a good recession signal? At face value the plunge in commodity prices over the last year is consistent with a global recession as severe as that in 2008-09. However, this time it almost certainly is different. The latest... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of deflation still confined to euro-zone and Japan Fears of a period of widespread deflation look misplaced, in our view, despite the recent fall in oil prices and China’s devaluation. Domestic forces will continue to be the key drivers of inflation... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on the impact of China’s exchange rate shift China’s move to shore up the renminbi suggests that the exchange rate policy changes it announced earlier this week will have little lasting impact on the world economy. Nor will the small step... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Does the weakness in world trade signal a broader downturn? The recent run of weak trade data has raised fresh concerns about the health of the global economy. However, the fall in the value of trade over the past year mostly reflects lower commodity prices... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Renewed slide in oil prices not (yet) a game-changer The declines in the cost of crude oil since May have revived concerns about global growth and deflation risks. However, the falls mainly reflect positive supply-side developments and are also small... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
