Global Economics Update Are negative policy rates a plus for the world economy? Negative interest rates have come under attack recently, but in our view most of the criticisms are over-stated. In particular, the costs of negative rates for commercial banks appear to be very small... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The final manufacturing PMIs for February, published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing activity slowed in 19 of the 24 economies for which data are released. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should the rest of the world fear ‘Brexit’? The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What can, or should, the G20 do? Calls for co-ordinated policy easing ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting will almost certainly cometo nothing. However, officials should at least seek to reassure investors that the world is not on... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower oil prices finally boost global growth? Last year, the slump in oil prices turned out to be less of a bonanza for the world economy than most had anticipated. This year we expect oil prices to be more stable, but still relatively low. In... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Flash PMIs published today point to a fairly sharp slowdown in manufacturing growth in advanced economies in February. The flash manufacturing PMIs for the euro-zone, Japan and the US all fell. As a... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further pick-up in inflation likely this year Despite the persistence of low oil prices we still think that inflation in the major advanced economies will rise this year. That said, it is only likely to increase substantially above 2% in the US... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growth still strong in the US, and rebounding in China Broad money growth has slowed somewhat in the four major advanced economies in recent months. However, bank lending to the private sector, which is a better guide to economic prospects, has generally... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Equity market slump not a game-changer for world economy The recent declines in global equity prices may negatively affect household consumption via confidence and wealth effects, but any impact should not be huge. It would probably take further sharp falls... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are negative rates doing more harm than good? In principle, cutting policy rates into negative territory should boost growth and inflation. But central banks have not communicated these benefits clearly, and the hesitant way in which they have... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of a new Plaza (or Shanghai) Accord? Recent financial market turmoil has prompted speculation that G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will discuss the merits of closer exchange rate coordination at their gathering in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the monetary data pointing to global downturn? While some recent survey evidence has hinted that loan growth in the US may be about to slow, money and credit data in the four major advanced economies as a whole so far provide little support for... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we expect more monetary policy U-turns? Experience since 2009 shows that the current crop of central bankers do not hesitate to change course if they think that is the right thing to do. Indeed, central banks in numerous advanced economies... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Financial Crisis: Part III? The recent problems in many emerging markets have revived fears that the world is only now entering a ‘third leg’ of the global financial crisis (GFC) – the first being the meltdown in the sub-prime... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How low can policy rates go? The Bank of Japan last week became the fifth central bank to impose negative rates and we now expect it to lower its deposit rate to -0.7% by the end of this year. If policy eventually needed to be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Business surveys for January provide further evidence that global economic activity is holding up well in contrast to fears of a sharp downturn. Growth in China slowed early last year, but appears to... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
