Global Economics Update What’s behind the pick-up in core inflation? While media headlines have focused on low energy prices and the risks of deflation, core inflation has actually risen in most advanced economies in recent months. However, it has done so for very... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 Antalya summit The annual G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Turkey on 15-16 th November, should be less acrimonious than many previous gatherings. Tensions over exchange rate policy, global imbalances, fiscal and... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should we worry about falling commodity prices? The renewed weakness in global commodity prices, notably oil and copper, is obviously a concern forproducers and will continue to constrain activity in the mining sector. However, the current... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is sluggish trade growth a warning sign for the global economy? The OECD’s warning yesterday that weak trade growth may herald an economic downturn is wide of the mark. Trade in goods has continued to grow in line with industrial output and the link between trade... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR be a game-changer? Although the addition of China’s currency to the SDR basket may provide a short-term boost for the renminbi, its appeal as a reserve asset will be constrained by lack of convertibility and liquidity... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six reasons for optimism about the world economy Many commentators have suggested that the next global recession may be just around the corner. In contrast, our view is that the balance of risks to world growth this year and next now lies on the... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for labour markets and wages? Unemployment rates in the US, euro-zone, Japan, and UK are likely to continue falling gradually over the coming years. However, the prospects for wage growth in these four economies vary considerably. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs for October reinforce our view that global growth is holding up much better than many seem to fear. Indeed, the headline readings for the US, China, the euro-zone... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update GDP data for Q3 point to slowdown, not meltdown Data released so far indicate that the world economy held up fairly well in Q3, contrary to widely-held fears of a sharp deceleration. What’s more, global growth is likely to strengthen over the... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money aggregates growing steadily Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative in most advanced economies, notwithstanding the rise in corporate bond yields since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, broad monetary aggregates are... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that activity in advanced economies picked up in October. Claims that the world economy is in the throes of a broad-based downturn are clearly... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil producers adjusting to new reality The collapse of oil prices since mid-2014 has exposed the huge variation in the public finances of the world’s major oil exporters. Poorly managed emerging economies such as Russia and Venezuela had... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Return to deflation should be brief Headline inflation fell below zero in a number of major economies in September, but we expect the latest bout of deflation to be short-lived. That said, the further drop in inflation expectations in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How quickly is the world economy growing? We estimate that global GDP growth will slow to around 2½% this year, taking into account ourassessment of China’s actual growth rate. However, the world economy should recover in 2016 asactivity in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update TPP is potentially a “big deal” but only over the long term The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement which was announced today may not see the light of day for some years. Assuming, however, that it is eventually implemented, it should have large and... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators consistent with global recovery Many have argued that China’s attempts to prevent its currency from weakening conflict with its efforts to keep domestic monetary conditions loose. But China’s monetary indicators still point to a... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
