Global Economics Update How will lower oil prices affect monetary policy? Based on our new oil price forecasts we expect inflation in advanced economies to rise more gradually this year than previously anticipated. This will add to pressure for further policy loosening in... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the renminbi? In our view, China is likely to keep its currency broadly stable in trade-weighted terms in the coming months. However, if there were a large, across-the-board devaluation of the renminbi the fallout... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs for December, which were published today, suggest that momentum was slowing at the end of last year. The euro-zone gained a bit more momentum, but this was... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will consumers continue driving the recovery in 2016? Household consumption in advanced economies has risen more rapidly in 2015 than in any other year since the global financial crisis. We expect it to continue expanding steadily for the next year or... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of our key calls for 2016 and beyond Advanced economies are likely to continue their steady recovery during the coming year or two, albeit with the euro-zone and Japan still lagging well behind the US and UK. Tighter labour market... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Flash manufacturing PMIs for December show continued steady growth in the eurozone and Japan, but they also underline how much the US manufacturing sector is struggling. That said, we doubt that this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a major devaluation of the renminbi the next global shock? Late on Friday the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appeared to signal its intention to shift towards managing the renminbi against a currency basket rather than the US dollar. This has added to... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the global implications of the latest slide in oil prices? The latest slide in the price of crude oil is clearly unsettling the financial markets, but it should not materially affect the prospects for the global economy. Even if prices remain below $40 per... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five reasons not to panic about Fed “lift-off” We do not think that higher US interest rates will derail the global recovery next year. The Fed is only likely to tighten policy if the economy continues to do well. Other major central banks will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the slowdown in world trade? There is no doubt that world trade growth has slowed sharply this year. However, we are wary of reading too much into the latest slump in trade. Exports from and imports to advanced economies have... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Manufacturing PMIs suggest that global manufacturing growth remained steady in November, despite a sharp slowdown in the US. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose in 2016 The broad money supply is growing steadily and the growth of credit to nonfinancial companies has been recovering in recent months. With bond yields still very low and several central banks likely to... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Flash PMIs published today and yesterday suggest that manufacturing growth has continued at a moderate pace in advanced economies in November, notwithstanding the weakness of some emerging economies. 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from emerging economies? Advanced economies have proved resilient this year in the face of a slowdown in emerging markets (EMs). As it happens, we think EM growth is likely to recover, gradually, in the coming months. But... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Time for Dr. Copper to be struck off? The continued slide in the price of copper has added to concerns about global growth. However, the industrial metal’s track record at diagnosing the health of the world economy has actually been shaky... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
