Global Economics Update Global growth edged up in Q1, and is set to recover further We estimate that global growth nudged up from 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year to 2.5% in Q1, largely due to a recovery in China. While there was a sharp decline in US GDP growth, its economy should... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary conditions still loose Broad money and credit have been expanding steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months. They should continue to hold up well for the foreseeable future as global monetary policy will... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Preliminary business surveys released earlier today suggest that manufacturing activity in advanced economies weakened further in April. This would be consistent with slow, but positive economic... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary policy divergence to resume With the three major advanced economy central banks holding policy meetings this week and next, we are sticking to our view that the next year or two will see a lot more divergence between monetary... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world economy nearing “stall speed”? The IMF warned last week that the global economic recovery was at risk of slowing to “stall speed”, below which a recession becomes inevitable. However, there is little theoretical or empirical... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to benefit from slightly looser fiscal policy Fiscal policy in advanced economies is set to be loosened this year for the first time since 2010. Governments in the US and Canada have increased spending while budget deficits in many European... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will negative interest rates lead to higher savings? We are not convinced that negative policy rates will prompt households to save more, in aggregate, even though some may step up their savings for retirement. There are many other drivers of savings... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF still behind the curve Despite being revised down yet again, we think the IMF’s latest projections for global growth are still too high. This is partly because the IMF appears to be constrained by the official, government... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for household spending? Consumption growth has slowed in every major advanced economy over the past six months or so, but prospects for the rest of the year are mixed. Spending should pick up again in the US, where the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs, published today, suggest that, having slowed sharply in February, global manufacturing growth recovered in March. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation? Growing support for populist politicians and political parties in a number of countries has fuelled fears that the global economy is set for an era of greater protectionism. But while world trade is... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit aggregates still expanding steadily Broad money and credit have continued to grow at a steady pace since the start of the year while government and corporate bond yields have dropped back. The prospect of further easing from the ECB and... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that, having slowed sharply in February, manufacturing growth in advanced economies remained very weak in March. The flash manufacturing PMIs rose... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a role for “helicopter money”? Helicopter money may be the next big thing as policymakers reach the limits of standard unconventional policies. In theory, it can fund an unlimited increase in both public spending and the money... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging economies still account for the bulk of global growth Emerging economies will not regain their pre-crisis growth rates any time soon, but we think they will recover this year and continue to grow more quickly than advanced economies. What’s more, they... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the IMF right to be so bearish about the world economy? The management of the IMF has suggested that the world economy is slowing sharply and warned that things could get a lot worse. But in our view, although global growth may have slipped a little... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
