Global Economics Update IMF still behind the curve Despite being revised down yet again, we think the IMF’s latest projections for global growth are still too high. This is partly because the IMF appears to be constrained by the official, government... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for household spending? Consumption growth has slowed in every major advanced economy over the past six months or so, but prospects for the rest of the year are mixed. Spending should pick up again in the US, where the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs, published today, suggest that, having slowed sharply in February, global manufacturing growth recovered in March. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation? Growing support for populist politicians and political parties in a number of countries has fuelled fears that the global economy is set for an era of greater protectionism. But while world trade is... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit aggregates still expanding steadily Broad money and credit have continued to grow at a steady pace since the start of the year while government and corporate bond yields have dropped back. The prospect of further easing from the ECB and... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that, having slowed sharply in February, manufacturing growth in advanced economies remained very weak in March. The flash manufacturing PMIs rose... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is there a role for “helicopter money”? Helicopter money may be the next big thing as policymakers reach the limits of standard unconventional policies. In theory, it can fund an unlimited increase in both public spending and the money... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging economies still account for the bulk of global growth Emerging economies will not regain their pre-crisis growth rates any time soon, but we think they will recover this year and continue to grow more quickly than advanced economies. What’s more, they... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the IMF right to be so bearish about the world economy? The management of the IMF has suggested that the world economy is slowing sharply and warned that things could get a lot worse. But in our view, although global growth may have slipped a little... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are negative policy rates a plus for the world economy? Negative interest rates have come under attack recently, but in our view most of the criticisms are over-stated. In particular, the costs of negative rates for commercial banks appear to be very small... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The final manufacturing PMIs for February, published by Markit today, suggest that manufacturing activity slowed in 19 of the 24 economies for which data are released. 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much should the rest of the world fear ‘Brexit’? The G20 was probably right to include UK exit from the European Union on its list of potential risks to the global recovery, especially given the precedent of the euro-zone crisis in 2011-12. However... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What can, or should, the G20 do? Calls for co-ordinated policy easing ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting will almost certainly cometo nothing. However, officials should at least seek to reassure investors that the world is not on... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower oil prices finally boost global growth? Last year, the slump in oil prices turned out to be less of a bonanza for the world economy than most had anticipated. This year we expect oil prices to be more stable, but still relatively low. In... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Flash PMIs published today point to a fairly sharp slowdown in manufacturing growth in advanced economies in February. The flash manufacturing PMIs for the euro-zone, Japan and the US all fell. As a... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further pick-up in inflation likely this year Despite the persistence of low oil prices we still think that inflation in the major advanced economies will rise this year. That said, it is only likely to increase substantially above 2% in the US... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
