Global Economics Update Putting the global slowdown into perspective The global economy is set to expand by less than 3% for the second year running in 2016. That is a lot less than the 4%+ growth rates seen a decade ago. But in the grand sweep of history, current... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain small by past standards The world’s main current account imbalances look set to widen a bit in the coming years but should not pose a serious threat to the global economy. Oil producers’ surpluses probably won’t reappear... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will wage growth ever pick up? Unemployment has continued to fall steadily in most advanced economies, but there is still some sparecapacity left. Moreover, the link between unemployment and wage growth is weaker than in the past... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Business surveys published today suggest that global manufacturing growth picked upin July, bucking the near-continuous downward trend seen since 2013. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth held up well in Q2 National accounts data released in recent weeks suggest that global growth edged up in Q2. Butprospects for the rest of the year are mixed. The euro-zone economy will probably slow further and theUK... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update QE to get a new lease of life? We expect the ECB and Bank of Japan to step up their asset purchases a bit in the coming months and the Bank of England (BoE) to resume its QE programme after a four-year break. Indeed, “global QE”... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from Brexit: one month on It is early days, but the limited data released since the EU referendum, as well as the reaction in financial markets, support our view that the economic implications of Brexit outside the UK will be... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys for July suggest that activity is contracting sharply in the UK following the Brexit vote. But there is no sign that other economies have been hit. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF changes its tune on Brexit Having spent the past few months warning that Brexit would cause “severe regional and global damage”, the IMF today all but admitted that it had been bluffing, and acknowledged that economic growth... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity now all but over Fiscal policy in advanced economies is looser this year than last and may well be eased further in the years ahead. In Japan, policy makers are on the cusp of announcing a large supplementary budget... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements The UK referendum result may ultimately lead to the British government pursuing more liberal trade policies with the rest of the world. But progress is likely to be very slow. Meanwhile, the prospect... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will China worries resurface? We expect China’s economy to slow further next year and the renminbi to continue depreciating. Nonetheless, the risk of a “hard landing” or large currency devaluation is low, so China is unlikely to... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit is a local, not global, shock Developments over the past few days have revived concerns about the consequences of Brexit for theglobal economy. But they have not changed our view that the economic impact outside the UK and... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Business surveys published today suggest that global manufacturing growth ticked up in June. Note, however, that almost all the survey responses were received before the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” heralds even looser global monetary conditions The latest monetary data are consistent with a gradual slowdown in advanced economies, but do not point to a collapse in growth. Looking ahead, global central banks are likely to respond to the UK... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update “Brexit” is not a disaster for the world economy Once the dust has settled, the global economic implications of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union are likely to prove much less dramatic than many had suggested during the past few weeks. The... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
