Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates and credit continue to expand steadily For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in the global economy this year, broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has increased by around 5% y/y... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four reasons for (cautious) optimism on the world economy In their declaration earlier today, G7 leaders claimed that “global growth is our urgent priority”. Promoting growth is a worthwhile aim but the implication that the world economy is on the brink of a... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five quick points on Brent at $50 The recovery in oil prices should be a net positive for the global economy but is not without its downsides, including the support it might provide to the hawks at the Fed. 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (May) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that manufacturing activity in advanced economies eased in May. Indeed, it looks increasingly likely that economic growth in the euro-zone and Japan... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G7 finance ministers This weekend’s G7 finance ministers meeting in Sendai, Japan, is likely to focus on exchange rate and fiscal policy and to end with another warning about the dangers of Brexit. However, no major... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth The rapid expansion of emerging economies (EMs) over the past decade or two has reduced the scope for further “catch-up” growth. Along with this, many EMs are likely to continue falling short of their... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon? Employment growth in advanced economies has so far remained fairly resilient in the face of weaker global growth and we think labour markets will continue to tighten gradually in the coming months... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Manufacturing activity seems to have remained weak across the board at the start of the second quarter. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, released today, slipped from 50.6 in March to 50.1 in April... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth edged up in Q1, and is set to recover further We estimate that global growth nudged up from 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year to 2.5% in Q1, largely due to a recovery in China. While there was a sharp decline in US GDP growth, its economy should... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary conditions still loose Broad money and credit have been expanding steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months. They should continue to hold up well for the foreseeable future as global monetary policy will... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Preliminary business surveys released earlier today suggest that manufacturing activity in advanced economies weakened further in April. This would be consistent with slow, but positive economic... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary policy divergence to resume With the three major advanced economy central banks holding policy meetings this week and next, we are sticking to our view that the next year or two will see a lot more divergence between monetary... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world economy nearing “stall speed”? The IMF warned last week that the global economic recovery was at risk of slowing to “stall speed”, below which a recession becomes inevitable. However, there is little theoretical or empirical... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to benefit from slightly looser fiscal policy Fiscal policy in advanced economies is set to be loosened this year for the first time since 2010. Governments in the US and Canada have increased spending while budget deficits in many European... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will negative interest rates lead to higher savings? We are not convinced that negative policy rates will prompt households to save more, in aggregate, even though some may step up their savings for retirement. There are many other drivers of savings... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
