Global Economics Update Surveys point to rebound in Q2, despite trade jitters Markit’s global manufacturing PMI slipped at the end of Q2 but remains consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth. We think that the latter picked up to over 3½% annualised last quarter. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economies entering Q3 with momentum Business surveys for June, which were published by Markit today, reinforce our view that GDP growth in advanced economies rebounded in the second quarter. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wage growth generally still subdued Given the strength of their labour markets, wage inflation is likely to pick up a bit in the US, UK and, to a lesser extent, the euro-zone and Japan over the coming quarters. But as Jerome Powell... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed signals a step-up in the pace of tightening The Fed delivered another 25bp hike in its fed funds target range to between 1.75% and 2.00% today and the updated interest rate projections show that officials now anticipate an additional two 25bp... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Assessing the impact of an “all-out” trade war Our best guess is that even if all the protectionist threats made to date were carried out, they would subtract a lot less than half a percent from global GDP. A free-for-all, in which all governments... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Trump-Kim summit Today’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a year after it appeared North Korea could be heading for a devastating war with... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will surging interest rates sink the US economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands The EU has shunned the Government’s backstop proposal for the whole of the UK to remain in the EU’s customs territory at the end of the transition period. It seems to us that this forces the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household balance sheets still in decent shape Although there are early signs that the finances of US households are coming under a bit of pressure as interest rates rise, the near-term outlook for household consumption in advanced economies... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, which has fallen significantly since the start of the year, slipped again in May. That said, it is still consistent with world GDP growth rebounding in the second... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary business surveys for May, published by Markit today, suggest that the moderate slowdown in economic growth may have continued in the second quarter, at least in the euro-zone and Japan. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
