Global Economics Update Will surging interest rates sink the US economy? We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Irish border issue looks set to tie Government’s hands The EU has shunned the Government’s backstop proposal for the whole of the UK to remain in the EU’s customs territory at the end of the transition period. It seems to us that this forces the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household balance sheets still in decent shape Although there are early signs that the finances of US households are coming under a bit of pressure as interest rates rise, the near-term outlook for household consumption in advanced economies... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, which has fallen significantly since the start of the year, slipped again in May. That said, it is still consistent with world GDP growth rebounding in the second... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six key questions and answers about Italy We have written extensively about political and economic developments in Italy in our Europe and Markets services. (See a list of relevant publications on page 2.) But as the events of the past few... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary business surveys for May, published by Markit today, suggest that the moderate slowdown in economic growth may have continued in the second quarter, at least in the euro-zone and Japan. 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Household spending growth likely to rebound in Q2 The slowdown in advanced economies in Q1 was partly a result of weak consumption growth. But we think that household spending will recover in Q2 and grow at a decent pace during the rest of 2018. 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks continue to relax lending standards In March, broad money growth slowed a bit in the euro-zone, UK and Japan. Indeed, in the euro-zone it dropped to its slowest rate since the ECB started its Asset Purchase Programme in early 2015... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM weakness to contribute to global slowdown The current troubles in Argentina and Turkey are not the start of a systemic emerging markets crisis, but we do think that EM growth will slow this year. With a US-led slowdown in advanced economies... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Business surveys for April, published today, suggest that global manufacturing conditions started Q2 in good shape and support our view that world GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Synchronised slowdown probably just temporary The fact that the slowdown in advanced economies has been so broad-based raises the question whether it is more than just a blip. However, strong business surveys and fundamentals suggest that... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
