Global Economics Update Can corporates cope with higher interest rates? The risk that higher interest rates will trigger widespread corporate defaults and cause the next global downturn is low, not least because business finances are generally in good shape. But as... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can corporates cope with higher interest rates? The risk that higher interest rates will trigger widespread corporate defaults and cause the next global downturn is low, not least because business finances are generally in good shape. But as... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The macroeconomic fallout from a China-US trade war For many companies the effects of the US and China imposing tariffs on all their bilateral trade would be substantial. But the macroeconomic consequences for the two countries, let alone the wider... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs slip further Global manufacturing growth continued to lose momentum in August, according to the latest PMIs, though they still point to world GDP growth holding up reasonably well in Q3. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Turkey entering a steep recession The latest Turkish activity data suggest that the plunge in the lira since May, and the associated sharp tightening of financial conditions, has tipped the economy into recession. Things are only... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash manufacturing PMIs extend downward trend Preliminary business surveys for August point to a further loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector, but the composite surveys suggest that GDP growth is holding up reasonably well. Meanwhile... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging markets not a major risk for the Fed or ECB Even if emerging market assets remain under pressure this year, we don’t expect the crises in Argentina and Turkey to be replicated in other emerging economies. Meanwhile, domestic conditions in the... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Italy really set for a fiscal splurge? Developments over the past few weeks have made it more likely that Italy’s Government will implement some form of fiscal stimulus in next year’s Budget. This is likely to cause bond yields to rise... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we care about consumer confidence? Surveys of consumer confidence have been unusually strong in the past two years, but their usefulness as a guide to spending has deteriorated. What’s more, experience shows that both confidence and... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Credit has continued to expand steadily in most major advanced economies in recent months and is rising particularly strongly in the US. Meanwhile, the currency crisis in Turkey has so far had only a... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First signs of tariff effects As expected, the first effects of tariffs introduced by the US and some of its key trade partners are quite small. The main risk to the world economy is from a much bigger escalation of the trade war... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a worry is Turkey? The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
