Global Economics Update World trade likely to slow, but not collapse After slowing sharply since the start of the year, we think that trade growth will lose further momentum in the coming months. But we doubt that there will be anything worse than a modest slowdown. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four points on the IMF’s latest projections We broadly agree with the IMF’s latest growth projections for the world economy for next year, but we still think its forecasts are too optimistic for the US and too downbeat for the UK. And in... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would the UK economy handle a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear oil at $100pb? While we expect oil prices to fall back from their four-year high, a continued rise to $100pb would not deal a big blow to global growth. But it would exacerbate current account pressures in some EMs. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Another look at the threat from quantitative tightening A year after the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet, global central banks’ net asset purchases have slowed sharply, and they are set to turn negative in January. However, we doubt that this will... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys weaken at the end of Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in September supports our view that global growth peaked in Q2. We think growth will slow further over the next two years as the US and China lose... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The bumpy road to Brexit: a primer There are now only six months left to negotiate the deal under which the UK will leave the EU and move into a transition period. This Update lays out five key questions and answers on what still needs... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs stable at the end of Q3 Preliminary PMIs suggest that GDP was expanding at a steady pace in advanced economies in September. The euro-zone has not recovered from a weak first half of the year, and the US has continued to do... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Global money and credit conditions remain accommodative. Broad money has been expanding at a decent pace and the latest lending data are encouraging. There are, however, some signs that higher... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of the new tariffs With a further $200bn of US tariffs now confirmed, and China reiterating that it will retaliate with tariffs of its own, we take stock in this short note of where China stands in the trade war. 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
