Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the global cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 20 year prospects Global economic growth will slow over the next twenty years even as a productivity revival in many mature markets helps to offset a steady decline in population growth. Emerging markets will continue... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2019 and beyond This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2019 and beyond This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys a sign of things to come Markit’s flash PMIs ended the year on a weak note, signalling the start of a US slowdown and pointing to weaker world trade growth at the beginning of 2019, despite the US-China truce on tariffs. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run The latest batch of business surveys suggests that the slowdown in global manufacturing continued in November. In particular, there was no sign of a rebound in the euro-zone despite the end of the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in oil prices a small plus for global growth The recent fall in oil prices should give a small boost to global economic activity in the coming year or so. Households will benefit from reduced inflation while any offsetting reduction in mining... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys point to slower growth in Q4 Another month, another set of downbeat PMI surveys. Markit’s flash PMIs for the euro-zone were especially weak, dampening hopes that growth will rebound in the fourth quarter. 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What happens if the Brexit deal is rejected in Parliament? It is possible that Theresa May will persuade enough MPs to back her deal in Parliament, if only by arguing that the alternatives are even worse. But it is far from certain. In this Update, we set out... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households can cope with rate hikes (in most cases) Households’ balance sheets are mostly in good shape and so are unlikely to cause any major trouble. But households in a few economies would be vulnerable if interest rates were to rise by more than we... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four questions and answers about leveraged loans Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently added to the growing chorus of concerns about the deterioration in corporate lending standards in relation to “leveraged loans” and the possibility that they... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
