Global Economics Update Will rising unemployment resurrect the Phillips Curve? Slower global growth will bring the downward trend in unemployment seen in developed economies in recent years to a halt and actually push unemployment up in some countries including the US. This... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run We have long thought that the world economy would slow significantly in 2019, but the Flash PMIs for January provide an early sign that growth may be deteriorating more quickly than even we had... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Impact of China's slowdown on the global economy China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese slowdown one of many reasons for concern China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What could we expect from a "soft" Brexit? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US policy rates to fall in 2020 The Fed’s promise to be “patient” is why we now forecast just one additional rate hike in the first half of this year, with the fed funds rate peaking at 2.50-2.75%. But we are increasingly confident... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK political chaos not a big threat to global economy To the outside world, it looks as though the UK is descending into chaos over Brexit. But while it is true that the UK political situation is in meltdown, its economy is holding up reasonably well... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World set for slowest growth since financial crisis Recent downward revisions to our forecasts for advanced economies, particularly for the euro-zone, mean that we now think that global growth will fall by 2020 to its slowest pace since the financial... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update New UK economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese growth to stay weak despite policy support Today’s cut to the required reserve ratio is partly about managing liquidity ahead of Chinese New Year. But it is also intended to provide support to the economy and will be reinforced with further... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys set tone for 2019 Markit’s global manufacturing PMI dropped again in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2018 on a weaker footing. We think that activity will lose further momentum this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
