Global Economics Update Inventories data also hint at a slowdown A look at recent figures on stockbuilding and inventories provide another reason to think that the economic cycle has turned downwards. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone economies most exposed to global downturns Since major euro-zone economies are more globalised than most, they are more sensitive to turns in the global business cycle. This partly explains why, having outperformed in 2017, they have... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing sector has lost more momentum in Q1 February’s flash PMIs show that the manufacturing downturn has deepened throughout advanced economies. The one comfort is that the surveys reported a pick-up in services sector activity. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone/US divergence to narrow as US slows The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM slowdown to be broad-based The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Capital Economics Financial Conditions Indices We expect financial conditions to tighten further this year in major advanced economies reflecting, but also exacerbating, slower economic growth. To monitor levels of stress in the financial system... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The possible bright spots in the economic gloom Amid growing fears about the outlook for the global economy, it is worth highlighting where we and the consensus might be positively surprised. Possibilities include resilient US growth, a boost to... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US growth to slow even if Fed has stopped tightening Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending to pick up in Germany The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Shifting down a gear Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the world economy is in the midst of a considerable slowdown and that the risk of a euro-zone recession is rising. The US remains a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Modern Monetary Theory creates more problems than it solves A new strand of economics called “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) is seen by its advocates as a solution to the flawed economic thinking that contributed to the financial crisis. The ideas behind it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
