Global Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run The latest batch of business surveys suggests that the slowdown in global manufacturing continued in November. In particular, there was no sign of a rebound in the euro-zone despite the end of the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Slump in oil prices a small plus for global growth The recent fall in oil prices should give a small boost to global economic activity in the coming year or so. Households will benefit from reduced inflation while any offsetting reduction in mining... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys point to slower growth in Q4 Another month, another set of downbeat PMI surveys. Markit’s flash PMIs for the euro-zone were especially weak, dampening hopes that growth will rebound in the fourth quarter. 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What happens if the Brexit deal is rejected in Parliament? It is possible that Theresa May will persuade enough MPs to back her deal in Parliament, if only by arguing that the alternatives are even worse. But it is far from certain. In this Update, we set out... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Households can cope with rate hikes (in most cases) Households’ balance sheets are mostly in good shape and so are unlikely to cause any major trouble. But households in a few economies would be vulnerable if interest rates were to rise by more than we... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four questions and answers about leveraged loans Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently added to the growing chorus of concerns about the deterioration in corporate lending standards in relation to “leveraged loans” and the possibility that they... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal Brexit News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China stimulus will not prevent global slowdown China is the only major economy which is likely to implement a significant policy stimulus in the coming year. However, its impact on the rest of the world will be small. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown far from over Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for October were a mixed bag, with steep falls in the euro-zone and UK sitting alongside small increases in other major economies. In aggregate, the surveys add to evidence... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK budget not a sign of global policy loosening The fiscal “giveaway” announced by the UK government yesterday has generated a lot of headlines, but it is trivial in a global context, or compared to the US stimulus. For advanced economies overall... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to slow further We think that global GDP growth slowed to around 3% annualised in the third quarter and that it will weaken further over the next year or so as the US and Chinese economies lose momentum. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Merkel’s step-down won’t derail the German economy The news that Angela Merkel will step down as head of the CDU has limited implications for the German economy since she will stay on as Chancellor for now and her likely successors broadly support her... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
