Global Economics Update US policy rates to fall in 2020 The Fed’s promise to be “patient” is why we now forecast just one additional rate hike in the first half of this year, with the fed funds rate peaking at 2.50-2.75%. But we are increasingly confident... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK political chaos not a big threat to global economy To the outside world, it looks as though the UK is descending into chaos over Brexit. But while it is true that the UK political situation is in meltdown, its economy is holding up reasonably well... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World set for slowest growth since financial crisis Recent downward revisions to our forecasts for advanced economies, particularly for the euro-zone, mean that we now think that global growth will fall by 2020 to its slowest pace since the financial... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update New UK economic forecasts in various Brexit outcomes Given the huge and growing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, we are now placing much more emphasis on three forecasts for the economy that are based on different Brexit outcomes. The key point, though... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese growth to stay weak despite policy support Today’s cut to the required reserve ratio is partly about managing liquidity ahead of Chinese New Year. But it is also intended to provide support to the economy and will be reinforced with further... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys set tone for 2019 Markit’s global manufacturing PMI dropped again in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2018 on a weaker footing. We think that activity will lose further momentum this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the global cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 20 year prospects Global economic growth will slow over the next twenty years even as a productivity revival in many mature markets helps to offset a steady decline in population growth. Emerging markets will continue... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2019 and beyond This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ten key calls for 2019 and beyond This time last year we predicted that 2018 would be another good year for the world economy but that “the expansion in advanced economies will begin to falter towards the end of the year.” We went on... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys a sign of things to come Markit’s flash PMIs ended the year on a weak note, signalling the start of a US slowdown and pointing to weaker world trade growth at the beginning of 2019, despite the US-China truce on tariffs. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
