Global Economics Update Euro-zone/US divergence to narrow as US slows The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM slowdown to be broad-based The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Capital Economics Financial Conditions Indices We expect financial conditions to tighten further this year in major advanced economies reflecting, but also exacerbating, slower economic growth. To monitor levels of stress in the financial system... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The possible bright spots in the economic gloom Amid growing fears about the outlook for the global economy, it is worth highlighting where we and the consensus might be positively surprised. Possibilities include resilient US growth, a boost to... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US growth to slow even if Fed has stopped tightening Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Consumer spending to pick up in Germany The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Shifting down a gear Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the world economy is in the midst of a considerable slowdown and that the risk of a euro-zone recession is rising. The US remains a... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Modern Monetary Theory creates more problems than it solves A new strand of economics called “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) is seen by its advocates as a solution to the flawed economic thinking that contributed to the financial crisis. The ideas behind it... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will rising unemployment resurrect the Phillips Curve? Slower global growth will bring the downward trend in unemployment seen in developed economies in recent years to a halt and actually push unemployment up in some countries including the US. This... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industry slowdown has further to run We have long thought that the world economy would slow significantly in 2019, but the Flash PMIs for January provide an early sign that growth may be deteriorating more quickly than even we had... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is behind the global slowdown? On the face of it, the slowdowns currently seen in many countries appear attributable to a range of country-specific factors. But could we be missing the wood for the trees? Although there is little... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Impact of China's slowdown on the global economy China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese slowdown one of many reasons for concern China’s slowdown looks set to be of a similar scale to that in 2015/16. In terms of imbalances and financial market vulnerability, the world now looks better placed to withstand it. But against a... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What could we expect from a "soft" Brexit? With Prime Minister Theresa May now holding cross-party talks, the chances have risen of a “soft” Brexit, resulting in the UK retaining closer ties with the EU than her defeated deal would have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
