Global Economics Update China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 6th August 2019 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that industrial woes are far from over The further fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that industry remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, with forward-looking components suggesting... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply a weak start to Q3 Advanced economy PMI surveys for July revealed that the relatively resilient services sector struggled to support growth, as the industrial downturn deepened. And the latest results of the Global... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Recovery is further off than the IMF assumes The IMF has revised down its global growth forecasts, but they are still much stronger than our own. Its forecasts for advanced economies look particularly optimistic and we think that the changing... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Signals from timely indicators not as bad as they seem Several timely economic indicators have lurched down recently, suggesting that even our below-consensus global growth forecasts might be too optimistic. But some are not as reliable as is often... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly.While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown point... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly. While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Industrial downturn deepens in Q2 The continued broad-based decline in the global manufacturing PMI in June appears to confirm that the industrial malaise worsened in the second quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Chief Economist's Note: Checking in on our key calls 1st July 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The limits to Libra Facebook’s new currency, Libra, could be a significant step forward in reducing the cost of processing international transactions. However, it is very unlikely to become a widely-used global currency. 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from India's union budget Given the recent economic slowdown, new Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to announce more accommodative tax and spending measures when she unveils the union budget for this fiscal year on... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 may not live up to (low) expectations It seems likely that Presidents Trump and Xi will agree to another tariff ceasefire on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. But given the differences between the two sides, we... 27th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 may not live up to (low) expectations It seems likely that Presidents Trump and Xi will agree to another tariff ceasefire on the sidelines of this weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. But given the differences between the two sides, we... 26th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update China This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for China’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 25th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs paint a bleak picture of Q2 PMI surveys for June imply that the slowdown in advanced economies worsened in the second quarter, as growth in the US dropped back towards the weak pace already experienced in the euro-zone and Japan... 25th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Chief Economist's Note: Problems in Italy still bubbling under the surface 25th June 2019 · 1 min read
